{ "ticker": { "uuid": "769daff0-0cba-4615-9028-1f1f7701ceca", "symbol": "IONQ", "name": "IONQ Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.76, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.174, "architecture_energy": 39.21, "architecture_maturity": 6.294, "architecture_confidence": 70.554, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.62, "rotation_up": 14.78, "upward_expansion": 20.7, "deceleration": 54.26, "rotation_down": 63.59, "downward_expansion": 48.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.59, 42.192182, 46.81619, 45.045591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 44.43, "trend_reference": 43.191667, "distance_from_trend": 0.028671, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.281026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.517365, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.802102, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.269791, "excess_performance": 0.144166, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028671, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022806, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.517365, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.364073, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168021, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133002, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.269791, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.175569, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 134041417, "relative_activity": 1.004278, "balance": 1.175569, "dry_up": 0.82561, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.245015, "annualized_volatility": 1.059283, "from_high_reference": -0.475071, "from_low_reference": 0.716107 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.191667, "fair_value_reference": 29.281026, "structural_low": 25.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.28424, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.230585, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.359363, "worst_return": 0.156334, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.430011, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.33052, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.813118, "worst_return": 0.046904, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.990073, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.802993, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.163073, "worst_return": -0.182927, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.863567, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.593952, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.325516, "worst_return": 0.401617, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.32842, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.383781, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.298293, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.477684, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03644, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135025, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.397939, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.158216, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152607, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.407259, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092974, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.147623, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.331433, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.219265, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.42, "volume": 83163993, "typical_volume": 51597899.75, "trend": 8.802667, "fair_value": 9.581752, "relative_strength": 78.030598, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.379713, "energy": 26.725391, "activity_lines": [ 43.191333, 49.505091, 48.899048, 46.174258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.84, "volume": 84444832, "typical_volume": 130885504.9, "trend": 43.703333, "fair_value": 28.974808, "relative_strength": -36.042739, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.810074, "energy": 36.35014, "activity_lines": [ 38.63, 45.750364, 47.718857, 45.445097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.44, "volume": 112202852, "typical_volume": 131228652.5, "trend": 43.359, "fair_value": 29.096923, "relative_strength": -29.543485, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.968732, "energy": 43.317502, "activity_lines": [ 36.849333, 42.997636, 46.895286, 44.976495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.43, "volume": 134041417, "typical_volume": 133470412.1, "trend": 43.191667, "fair_value": 29.281026, "relative_strength": -16.802102, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.173989, "energy": 39.210136, "activity_lines": [ 38.59, 42.192182, 46.81619, 45.045591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }