{ "ticker": { "uuid": "769ee3db-bfda-424d-a62a-c36b271338a9", "symbol": "ALPDX", "name": "Piscines Desjoyaux SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.027, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.242, "architecture_energy": 31.318, "architecture_maturity": 36.067, "architecture_confidence": 62.33, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.36, "rotation_up": 12.14, "upward_expansion": 12.93, "deceleration": 61.11, "rotation_down": 61.7, "downward_expansion": 67.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.293333, 11.59, 11.410476, 11.462192 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.2, "trend_reference": 11.69509, "distance_from_trend": -0.042333, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.928415, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.061066, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.162937, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.093653, "excess_performance": -0.146965, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042333, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023046, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.061066, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063775, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.131629, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048643, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.093653, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.136568, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5516, "relative_activity": 0.472689, "balance": 2.136568, "dry_up": 0.678313, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063874, "annualized_volatility": 0.336789, "from_high_reference": -0.187413, "from_low_reference": 0.142857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.69509, "fair_value_reference": 11.928415, "structural_low": 9.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.043103, "positive_rate": 0.238095, "directional_follow_through": 0.238095, "median_excess_return": -0.031755, "regime_survival": 0.47619, "best_return": 0.176923, "worst_return": -0.121119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.025157, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.055078, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.156945, "worst_return": -0.220591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.123539, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.065868, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.182543, "worst_return": -0.200105, 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-0.088028, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003906, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062992, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037879, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033457, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092691, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.999731, "energy": 36.586128, "activity_lines": [ 10.723333, 10.677273, 11.187948, 11.566166 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 11.95, "volume": 11670, "typical_volume": 15183.3, "trend": 11.957401, "fair_value": 11.9007, "relative_strength": -5.902916, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.419815, "energy": 18.620893, "activity_lines": [ 11.183333, 10.881818, 11.213173, 11.564813 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 11.35, "volume": 702, "typical_volume": 14776.1, "trend": 11.920655, "fair_value": 11.907271, "relative_strength": -11.80084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.041117, "energy": 25.001125, "activity_lines": [ 11.316667, 10.978182, 11.186816, 11.525626 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 12.0, "volume": 11172, "typical_volume": 14928.5, "trend": 11.911914, "fair_value": 11.91961, "relative_strength": -7.089003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.613433, "energy": 19.94871, "activity_lines": [ 11.603333, 11.190909, 11.23033, 11.530745 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 11.85, "volume": 584, "typical_volume": 14198.1, "trend": 11.880745, "fair_value": 11.928852, "relative_strength": -7.341717, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.144978, "energy": 23.43928, "activity_lines": [ 11.733333, 11.36, 11.263295, 11.526751 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.4, "volume": 5984, "typical_volume": 14131.1, "trend": 11.874247, "fair_value": 11.940285, "relative_strength": -4.086693, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.6125, "energy": 40.888364, "activity_lines": [ 12.003333, 11.611818, 11.351058, 11.560251 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.7, "volume": 12267, "typical_volume": 14530.05, "trend": 11.863491, "fair_value": 11.941099, "relative_strength": 0.512465, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.550504, "energy": 62.255654, "activity_lines": [ 12.266667, 11.877273, 11.469225, 11.613525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.5, "volume": 10355, "typical_volume": 14026.9, "trend": 11.83333, "fair_value": 11.938223, "relative_strength": -8.524427, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.778248, "energy": 40.655605, "activity_lines": [ 12.08, 11.876364, 11.472833, 11.590074 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.1, "volume": 6387, "typical_volume": 13653.65, "trend": 11.794588, "fair_value": 11.932516, "relative_strength": -11.570219, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.611828, "energy": 19.929551, "activity_lines": [ 11.75, 11.782727, 11.443333, 11.542763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.1, "volume": 9404, "typical_volume": 12035.5, "trend": 11.754262, "fair_value": 11.929745, "relative_strength": -12.425286, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.723522, "energy": 20.656616, "activity_lines": [ 11.48, 11.676364, 11.420952, 11.49795 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.2, "volume": 5516, "typical_volume": 11669.4, "trend": 11.69509, "fair_value": 11.928415, "relative_strength": -13.162937, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.241734, "energy": 31.318495, "activity_lines": [ 11.293333, 11.59, 11.410476, 11.462192 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }