{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76a02c9a-8368-47ed-8a1f-8ae5a5e05168", "symbol": "688008", "name": "Montage Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.467, "architecture_energy": 22.265, "architecture_maturity": 70.268, "architecture_confidence": 95.671, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.45, "rotation_up": 23.06, "upward_expansion": 55.71, "deceleration": 88.31, "rotation_down": 41.79, "downward_expansion": 21.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 215.394044, 229.613584, 228.589994, 212.875851 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 215.520004, "trend_reference": 193.144073, "distance_from_trend": 0.115851, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 95.452749, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.257871, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 33.507454, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.185153, "excess_performance": 0.228356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.115851, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.24772, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.257871, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.364129, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.335075, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250147, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.185153, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.733512, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 254785306, "relative_activity": 1.019031, "balance": 1.733512, "dry_up": 1.319705, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.206822, "annualized_volatility": 0.886738, "from_high_reference": -0.27531, "from_low_reference": 1.634329 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 193.144073, "fair_value_reference": 95.452749, "structural_low": 125.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.032309, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.023106, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.644648, "worst_return": -0.151764, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.158314, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.101148, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.862664, "worst_return": -0.171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.279444, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.199087, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.221247, "worst_return": -0.112556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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56.274766, "activity_lines": [ 263.439742, 256.945928, 226.6506, 206.711368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 183.252472, "volume": 387623581, "typical_volume": 228919927.1, "trend": 183.231482, "fair_value": 92.417291, "relative_strength": 24.585867, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.103429, "energy": 25.091939, "activity_lines": [ 238.5271, 244.58416, 224.996302, 206.847888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 233.217712, "volume": 368822444, "typical_volume": 238589090.25, "trend": 187.086073, "fair_value": 93.511036, "relative_strength": 53.68079, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.726069, "energy": 21.403191, "activity_lines": [ 233.044706, 241.798209, 228.006777, 210.072806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 204.899994, "volume": 308617086, "typical_volume": 246898641.4, "trend": 189.886739, "fair_value": 94.434028, "relative_strength": 32.465937, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.994368, "energy": 19.608423, "activity_lines": [ 220.568559, 234.131986, 227.931718, 211.222092 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 215.520004, "volume": 254785306, "typical_volume": 250027136.75, "trend": 193.144073, "fair_value": 95.452749, "relative_strength": 33.507454, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.466599, "energy": 22.265123, "activity_lines": [ 215.394044, 229.613584, 228.589994, 212.875851 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }