{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76a0d659-59b6-4b84-a9c6-aba5d4614abb", "symbol": "BMR", "name": "Ballymore Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.699, "architecture_energy": 40.532, "architecture_maturity": 86.995, "architecture_confidence": 65.199, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.44, "rotation_up": 27.28, "upward_expansion": 17.37, "deceleration": 65.4, "rotation_down": 42.08, "downward_expansion": 67.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.125, 0.124273, 0.129974, 0.148016 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.135, "trend_reference": 0.188109, "distance_from_trend": -0.282331, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.155156, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.129906, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.938424, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.55, "excess_performance": -0.613706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.282331, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193043, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.129906, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281468, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.339384, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221764, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.55, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.272245, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 688851, "relative_activity": 1.009621, "balance": 0.272245, "dry_up": 1.114017, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139601, "annualized_volatility": 0.840907, "from_high_reference": -0.689655, "from_low_reference": 0.227273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.188109, "fair_value_reference": 0.155156, "structural_low": 0.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": 0.025315, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.368421, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.035714, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.027838, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.259259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.019167, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016463, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.26087, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032258, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.171429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.344828, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.243902, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.264151, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131679, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.25, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.15, "volume": 49878, "typical_volume": 248352.7, "trend": 0.146667, "fair_value": 0.182888, "relative_strength": -5.234207, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.187167, "energy": 52.102901, "activity_lines": [ 0.124667, 0.126636, 0.139703, 0.169012 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.125, "volume": 673883, "typical_volume": 717628.45, "trend": 0.209109, "fair_value": 0.15554, "relative_strength": -36.740626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.782052, "energy": 50.981796, "activity_lines": [ 0.124667, 0.125273, 0.13645, 0.163198 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.12, "volume": 964912, "typical_volume": 742961.5, "trend": 0.201942, "fair_value": 0.15538, "relative_strength": -38.577615, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.371927, "energy": 48.048392, "activity_lines": [ 0.123, 0.124, 0.133482, 0.157449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.115, "volume": 712670, "typical_volume": 724583.15, "trend": 0.194276, "fair_value": 0.15522, "relative_strength": -42.137329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.222078, "energy": 46.599399, "activity_lines": [ 0.120667, 0.122182, 0.130585, 0.15184 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.135, "volume": 688851, "typical_volume": 682286.95, "trend": 0.188109, "fair_value": 0.155156, "relative_strength": -33.938424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.698737, "energy": 40.53157, "activity_lines": [ 0.125, 0.124273, 0.129974, 0.148016 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }