{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76a5b229-3543-42f5-b9e4-8849e2e63314", "symbol": "GRID", "name": "First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Index Fund", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.046, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.225, "architecture_energy": 18.325, "architecture_maturity": 49.343, "architecture_confidence": 76.962, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.01, "rotation_up": 15.3, "upward_expansion": 41.96, "deceleration": 83.44, "rotation_down": 42.66, "downward_expansion": 35.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 3155.64401, 3186.444445, 3231.059756, 3194.627907 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3205.0, "trend_reference": 3125.203676, "distance_from_trend": 0.025533, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2654.783224, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.207255, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.544577, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.090915, "excess_performance": 0.145581, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025533, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048136, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.207255, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108123, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.055446, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035965, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090915, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 34.924214, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1168, "relative_activity": 0.08251, "balance": 34.924214, "dry_up": 2.381136, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037095, "annualized_volatility": 0.168068, "from_high_reference": -0.084079, "from_low_reference": 0.207446 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3125.203676, "fair_value_reference": 2654.783224, "structural_low": 2857.840088, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.019969, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.012102, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.113479, "worst_return": -0.077553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.105475, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.063029, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.139057, "worst_return": 0.071893, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.233649, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.155171, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.233649, "worst_return": 0.233649, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079881, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033304, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059516, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003433, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.2247, "energy": 18.325162, "activity_lines": [ 3155.64401, 3186.444445, 3231.059756, 3194.627907 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }