{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76abbf04-1601-4097-baaf-fdaf2b8fb459", "symbol": "VERG", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Developed Europe ex UK UCITS ETF Accuimulation", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.295, "architecture_energy": 54.489, "architecture_maturity": 38.924, "architecture_confidence": 77.611, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.15, "rotation_up": 52.38, "upward_expansion": 78.84, "deceleration": 63.28, "rotation_down": 25.63, "downward_expansion": 7.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.254001, 52.065728, 51.315358, 50.586785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 53.310001, "trend_reference": 49.868834, "distance_from_trend": 0.069004, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.698446, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.278465, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.273508, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.081119, "excess_performance": 0.029884, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069004, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034087, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.278465, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056702, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.022735, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013761, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081119, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.328752, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 136234, "relative_activity": 0.784883, "balance": 3.328752, "dry_up": 0.699738, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021769, "annualized_volatility": 0.162411, "from_high_reference": -0.011723, "from_low_reference": 0.238615 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.868834, "fair_value_reference": 41.698446, "structural_low": 44.189999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.003354, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.000774, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.06014, "worst_return": -0.105107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.013814, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.0003, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.095358, "worst_return": -0.072367, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.060202, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.012402, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.127349, "worst_return": -0.137334, "sufficient": true }, { 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"trend": 49.57925, "fair_value": 41.466042, "relative_strength": 0.721631, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.622837, "energy": 45.450724, "activity_lines": [ 51.688001, 51.637546, 50.786262, 50.195124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.060001, "volume": 116404, "typical_volume": 178945.95, "trend": 49.72, "fair_value": 41.578301, "relative_strength": 0.222269, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.921398, "energy": 41.50652, "activity_lines": [ 51.774001, 51.752728, 51.003334, 50.355172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.310001, "volume": 136234, "typical_volume": 173572.35, "trend": 49.868834, "fair_value": 41.698446, "relative_strength": 2.273508, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.295364, "energy": 54.489302, "activity_lines": [ 52.254001, 52.065728, 51.315358, 50.586785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }