{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76b2d42b-e0c8-403d-b937-3a39a5478592", "symbol": "603117", "name": "Jiangsu Wanlin Modern Logistics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.119, "architecture_energy": 56.412, "architecture_maturity": 77.414, "architecture_confidence": 94.878, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 26.3, "upward_expansion": 10.07, "deceleration": 59.01, "rotation_down": 53.54, "downward_expansion": 83.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.514, 3.542727, 3.901952, 4.191376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.63, "trend_reference": 4.529, "distance_from_trend": -0.198499, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.742372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.23456, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.003449, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.251546, "excess_performance": -0.208343, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.198499, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096849, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.23456, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322908, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.250034, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110764, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.251546, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.696409, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47390760, "relative_activity": 1.019064, "balance": 0.696409, "dry_up": 1.03506, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101081, "annualized_volatility": 0.470308, "from_high_reference": -0.406863, "from_low_reference": 0.113497 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.529, "fair_value_reference": 4.742372, "structural_low": 3.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.018908, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": 0.00406, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.140496, "worst_return": -0.190661, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.019763, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.029569, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.22093, "worst_return": -0.248322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.035503, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.055659, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.44186, "worst_return": -0.124304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130734, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081864, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.162826, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093426, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082102, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", 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"typical_volume": 55170740.1, "trend": 4.657667, "fair_value": 4.745256, "relative_strength": -26.922569, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.552938, "energy": 83.232028, "activity_lines": [ 3.521333, 3.746364, 4.147762, 4.408086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.29, "volume": 50527298, "typical_volume": 50462921.0, "trend": 4.606, "fair_value": 4.742821, "relative_strength": -31.353898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.102735, "energy": 69.385797, "activity_lines": [ 3.438667, 3.613455, 4.036429, 4.319849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.55, "volume": 41496680, "typical_volume": 47418568.0, "trend": 4.565333, "fair_value": 4.742244, "relative_strength": -25.433078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.487845, "energy": 59.987639, "activity_lines": [ 3.467333, 3.557818, 3.961429, 4.25172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.63, "volume": 47390760, "typical_volume": 46504219.0, "trend": 4.529, "fair_value": 4.742372, "relative_strength": -25.003449, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.118502, "energy": 56.411785, "activity_lines": [ 3.514, 3.542727, 3.901952, 4.191376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }