{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76b4c148-d19f-407c-9999-32177a248ffe", "symbol": "F5ESG", "name": "UBS SBI Foreign AAA-BBB 5-10 ESG UCITS ETF CHF dis", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 71.486, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.622, "architecture_energy": 13.456, "architecture_maturity": 46.69, "architecture_confidence": 79.18, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.74, "rotation_up": 17.96, "upward_expansion": 11.38, "deceleration": 53.43, "rotation_down": 46.95, "downward_expansion": 68.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.8422, 13.864845, 13.858957, 13.864692 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.937, "trend_reference": 13.878388, "distance_from_trend": 0.004223, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.502877, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.03215, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.598719, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003984, "excess_performance": -0.0789, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004223, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000447, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.03215, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003795, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095987, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059333, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003984, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.47733, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 154131, "relative_activity": 1.170375, "balance": 0.47733, "dry_up": 0.667851, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012413, "annualized_volatility": 0.045236, "from_high_reference": -0.015575, "from_low_reference": 0.01834 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.878388, "fair_value_reference": 13.502877, "structural_low": 13.686, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.006258, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": 0.002728, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.020333, "worst_return": -0.031511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.000935, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.010372, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.035054, "worst_return": -0.013283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.014881, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.02515, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.06041, "worst_return": -0.026632, 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balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.285397, "energy": 9.28126, "activity_lines": [ 13.8902, 13.883718, 13.865064, 13.873192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.8175, "volume": 80683, "typical_volume": 130360.4, "trend": 13.876652, "fair_value": 13.485722, "relative_strength": -9.70991, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.248639, "energy": 14.799621, "activity_lines": [ 13.861267, 13.875664, 13.861088, 13.869477 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.74, "volume": 65066, "typical_volume": 128565.95, "trend": 13.874503, "fair_value": 13.49405, "relative_strength": -9.987932, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.923245, "energy": 28.371084, "activity_lines": [ 13.811333, 13.852764, 13.850374, 13.86066 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.937, "volume": 154131, "typical_volume": 131693.65, "trend": 13.878388, "fair_value": 13.502877, "relative_strength": -9.598719, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.621951, "energy": 13.455901, "activity_lines": [ 13.8422, 13.864845, 13.858957, 13.864692 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }