{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76b6db6c-2449-40ea-b143-f05d2b032b0f", "symbol": "PRPL", "name": "Purple Innovation Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.664, "architecture_energy": 58.553, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 27.29, "upward_expansion": 10.31, "deceleration": 55.1, "rotation_down": 53.93, "downward_expansion": 83.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.392333, 8.666773, 9.803667, 11.361952 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.58, "trend_reference": 13.410667, "distance_from_trend": -0.285643, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.27258, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.605316, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -52.218787, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.452884, "excess_performance": -0.640338, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.285643, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197395, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.605316, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027906, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.522188, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048806, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.452884, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.194159, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 139494, "relative_activity": 0.09339, "balance": 0.194159, "dry_up": 0.425211, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.164041, "annualized_volatility": 0.603085, "from_high_reference": -0.695873, "from_low_reference": 0.565359 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.410667, "fair_value_reference": 24.27258, "structural_low": 6.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.072111, "positive_rate": 0.348837, "directional_follow_through": 0.651163, "median_excess_return": -0.09398, "regime_survival": 0.883721, "best_return": 0.973154, "worst_return": -0.438596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.207204, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.208752, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.986755, "worst_return": -0.527972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.269875, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.342453, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.428807, "worst_return": -0.697256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 8.21, "volume": 1229222, "typical_volume": 1558478.35, "trend": 14.760333, "fair_value": 25.9325, "relative_strength": -61.761679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.349337, "energy": 65.403035, "activity_lines": [ 9.216167, 9.676091, 11.456476, 12.929742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.2425, "volume": 2055526, "typical_volume": 1607340.1, "trend": 14.380083, "fair_value": 25.514183, "relative_strength": -64.322369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.954472, "energy": 79.526603, "activity_lines": [ 8.420333, 9.153091, 10.886429, 12.44472 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.63, "volume": 124676, "typical_volume": 1566397.9, "trend": 14.0215, "fair_value": 25.063093, "relative_strength": -61.072012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.450328, "energy": 77.192944, "activity_lines": [ 7.969, 8.796636, 10.401536, 12.009231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.1, "volume": 220799, "typical_volume": 1527663.75, "trend": 13.691333, "fair_value": 24.602196, "relative_strength": -58.201906, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.032701, "energy": 79.107299, "activity_lines": [ 7.8785, 8.579455, 10.009381, 11.627199 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.58, "volume": 139494, "typical_volume": 1493666.8, "trend": 13.410667, "fair_value": 24.27258, "relative_strength": -52.218787, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.663856, "energy": 58.552728, "activity_lines": [ 8.392333, 8.666773, 9.803667, 11.361952 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }