{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76bf62fe-c8e3-4040-ad32-dde5882f5785", "symbol": "ZAPLOX", "name": "Zaplox AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 83.969, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.118, "architecture_energy": 51.883, "architecture_maturity": 30.134, "architecture_confidence": 88.2, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.08, "rotation_up": 55.55, "upward_expansion": 78.85, "deceleration": 52.21, "rotation_down": 15.79, "downward_expansion": 12.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.998667, 0.9724, 0.960195, 0.948286 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.08, "trend_reference": 0.937767, "distance_from_trend": 0.151672, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.11388, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.030417, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.12426, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.176471, "excess_performance": 0.114976, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.151672, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001313, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.030417, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.193788, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031243, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088437, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.176471, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.595408, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55085, "relative_activity": 1.218773, "balance": 1.595408, "dry_up": 1.23405, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092949, "annualized_volatility": 0.528813, "from_high_reference": -0.13253, "from_low_reference": 0.8 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.937767, "fair_value_reference": 1.11388, "structural_low": 0.6, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.047009, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": -0.040435, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.509434, "worst_return": -0.405357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.130435, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.214027, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.264151, "worst_return": -0.468795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.26533, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.353771, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": -0.057143, "worst_return": -0.631838, "sufficient": true 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.09009, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.209524, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042353, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.060127, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107843, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-20", 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advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.997235, "energy": 4.359385, "activity_lines": [ 0.935467, 0.944073, 0.936267, 0.933505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.932, "volume": 15085, "typical_volume": 41670.0, "trend": 0.9325, "fair_value": 1.136815, "relative_strength": -7.622363, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.64909, "energy": 9.259359, "activity_lines": [ 0.9384, 0.940418, 0.936805, 0.933284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.94, "volume": 15084, "typical_volume": 38510.15, "trend": 0.9321, "fair_value": 1.130612, "relative_strength": -5.828338, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.675648, "energy": 16.445665, "activity_lines": [ 0.941333, 0.938727, 0.938038, 0.933768 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.0, "volume": 120339, "typical_volume": 43382.4, "trend": 0.932767, "fair_value": 1.125497, "relative_strength": -1.362602, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.869125, "energy": 26.71158, "activity_lines": [ 0.961333, 0.947873, 0.945052, 0.938148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.942, "volume": 32594, "typical_volume": 43988.45, "trend": 0.9321, "fair_value": 1.119613, "relative_strength": -8.140175, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.581352, "energy": 22.527831, "activity_lines": [ 0.9552, 0.947018, 0.946248, 0.938744 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.08, "volume": 55085, "typical_volume": 45197.1, "trend": 0.937767, "fair_value": 1.11388, "relative_strength": 3.12426, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.11804, "energy": 51.882592, "activity_lines": [ 0.998667, 0.9724, 0.960195, 0.948286 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }