{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76c00873-a930-4b9b-b12e-3d580fd87afb", "symbol": "CAHEUA", "name": "UBS MSCI Canada UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.372, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.643, "architecture_energy": 73.465, "architecture_maturity": 42.965, "architecture_confidence": 70.088, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.4, "rotation_up": 75.83, "upward_expansion": 90.0, "deceleration": 54.91, "rotation_down": 19.4, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.264334, 40.941546, 40.286453, 39.633011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 41.900002, "trend_reference": 38.826, "distance_from_trend": 0.079174, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.579904, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.416502, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.601508, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.148103, "excess_performance": -0.022789, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079174, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045579, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.416502, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030016, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026015, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018249, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.148103, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 14.336458, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39738, "relative_activity": 2.639215, "balance": 14.336458, "dry_up": 1.632324, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015559, "annualized_volatility": 0.109853, "from_high_reference": -0.006285, "from_low_reference": 0.321767 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.826, "fair_value_reference": 29.579904, "structural_low": 35.154999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": 0.011872, "positive_rate": 0.688889, "directional_follow_through": 0.688889, "median_excess_return": -0.001508, "regime_survival": 0.822222, "best_return": 0.059001, "worst_return": -0.045678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.034757, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": 0.016303, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.107389, "worst_return": -0.037511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.051958, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.036969, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.207472, "worst_return": -0.141179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 40.939999, "volume": 25123, "typical_volume": 17421.25, "trend": 38.361, "fair_value": 29.215673, "relative_strength": -1.333938, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.985523, "energy": 89.803929, "activity_lines": [ 40.676334, 40.386091, 39.667, 39.096033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.98, "volume": 9128, "typical_volume": 15345.35, "trend": 38.511167, "fair_value": 29.334776, "relative_strength": -1.141798, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.969292, "energy": 85.049958, "activity_lines": [ 40.819, 40.552909, 39.860215, 39.265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.985001, "volume": 24321, "typical_volume": 15556.15, "trend": 38.669667, "fair_value": 29.453365, "relative_strength": -1.86926, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.518023, "energy": 67.177604, "activity_lines": [ 40.91, 40.677, 40.039096, 39.424603 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.900002, "volume": 39738, "typical_volume": 15056.75, "trend": 38.826, "fair_value": 29.579904, "relative_strength": -2.601508, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.64262, "energy": 73.464718, "activity_lines": [ 41.264334, 40.941546, 40.286453, 39.633011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }