{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76c10c48-0818-4854-b921-abe88fd61a49", "symbol": "SBIO", "name": "Invesco NASDAQ Biotech UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.759, "architecture_energy": 65.529, "architecture_maturity": 41.567, "architecture_confidence": 72.817, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.85, "rotation_up": 58.88, "upward_expansion": 82.16, "deceleration": 69.03, "rotation_down": 23.47, "downward_expansion": 11.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.356669, 67.869821, 65.698954, 64.454969 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 69.830002, "trend_reference": 63.122334, "distance_from_trend": 0.106265, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.977212, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.397237, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.008071, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.154215, "excess_performance": 0.071332, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.106265, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042184, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.397237, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114241, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.060081, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038549, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.154215, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.859672, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20088, "relative_activity": 0.966773, "balance": 0.859672, "dry_up": 1.519402, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027297, "annualized_volatility": 0.178117, "from_high_reference": -0.019655, "from_low_reference": 0.503337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.122334, "fair_value_reference": 49.977212, "structural_low": 57.599998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.008056, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.006658, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.089783, "worst_return": -0.09052, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.003831, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.022839, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.24804, "worst_return": -0.087061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.010908, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.0585, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.292612, "worst_return": -0.20878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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62.519871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 68.910004, "volume": 46987, "typical_volume": 17504.95, "trend": 62.045, "fair_value": 49.317564, "relative_strength": 8.382691, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.765937, "energy": 92.471479, "activity_lines": [ 67.925336, 65.630911, 63.761715, 62.982947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 67.870003, "volume": 16054, "typical_volume": 17977.05, "trend": 62.321667, "fair_value": 49.478141, "relative_strength": 5.547315, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.301222, "energy": 88.525407, "activity_lines": [ 68.37467, 66.313456, 64.260715, 63.358753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 67.970001, "volume": 37156, "typical_volume": 18134.05, "trend": 62.573333, "fair_value": 49.642212, "relative_strength": 5.461887, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.79445, "energy": 87.57116, "activity_lines": [ 68.484669, 66.901093, 64.744334, 63.723162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.910004, "volume": 52985, "typical_volume": 20108.55, "trend": 62.823667, "fair_value": 49.800545, "relative_strength": 3.375922, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.883277, "energy": 67.793862, "activity_lines": [ 67.903336, 67.169275, 65.098573, 64.002947 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.830002, "volume": 20088, "typical_volume": 20778.4, "trend": 63.122334, "fair_value": 49.977212, "relative_strength": 6.008071, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.758525, "energy": 65.528657, "activity_lines": [ 68.356669, 67.869821, 65.698954, 64.454969 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }