{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76c15aaf-42b3-4df0-921e-9fbc9dda277e", "symbol": "SYT", "name": "Softing AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.011, "architecture_energy": 67.418, "architecture_maturity": 20.439, "architecture_confidence": 87.324, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.35, "rotation_up": 12.46, "upward_expansion": 14.64, "deceleration": 38.56, "rotation_down": 73.25, "downward_expansion": 92.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.426667, 2.505273, 2.63481, 2.70372 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 2.41, "trend_reference": 2.771667, "distance_from_trend": -0.130487, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.991539, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.396223, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.587229, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.14539, "excess_performance": -0.21003, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130487, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030434, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.396223, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042246, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.245872, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133443, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.14539, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.83217, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13631, "relative_activity": 3.000473, "balance": 0.83217, "dry_up": 1.130488, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091286, "annualized_volatility": 0.180588, "from_high_reference": -0.431604, "from_low_reference": 0.095455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.771667, "fair_value_reference": 3.991539, "structural_low": 2.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.009436, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.031541, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.267974, "worst_return": -0.15847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.002257, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.080251, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.1125, "worst_return": -0.259259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.037415, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.090606, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.413461, "worst_return": -0.202237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"direction": -73.240182, "energy": 72.069402, "activity_lines": [ 2.547333, 2.638, 2.737619, 2.776688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.49, "volume": 3043, "typical_volume": 4541.5, "trend": 2.799333, "fair_value": 4.044147, "relative_strength": -19.373313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.464807, "energy": 70.768467, "activity_lines": [ 2.510667, 2.600727, 2.708238, 2.756452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.36, "volume": 577, "typical_volume": 4551.0, "trend": 2.788, "fair_value": 4.018621, "relative_strength": -24.68998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.305759, "energy": 75.488014, "activity_lines": [ 2.45, 2.544364, 2.667952, 2.728108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.41, "volume": 13631, "typical_volume": 4542.95, "trend": 2.771667, "fair_value": 3.991539, "relative_strength": -24.587229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.011326, "energy": 67.417931, "activity_lines": [ 2.426667, 2.505273, 2.63481, 2.70372 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }