{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76c1b399-95cb-4746-81d7-82b0553ee964", "symbol": "300812", "name": "Shenzhen Etmade Automatic Equipment Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.366, "architecture_energy": 85.26, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.465, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.81, "rotation_up": 9.93, "upward_expansion": 21.4, "deceleration": 37.27, "rotation_down": 77.87, "downward_expansion": 97.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.659334, 21.257455, 27.019038, 29.999309 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 19.92, "trend_reference": 32.511636, "distance_from_trend": -0.387296, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.444843, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.21713, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.177108, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.323829, "excess_performance": -0.331229, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.387296, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030361, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.21713, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.79556, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.341771, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.504272, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.323829, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.624642, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37635185, "relative_activity": 0.764246, "balance": 0.624642, "dry_up": 0.800308, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.249519, "annualized_volatility": 0.917106, "from_high_reference": -0.609028, "from_low_reference": 0.295189 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.511636, "fair_value_reference": 25.444843, "structural_low": 15.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0212, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.02526, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.351899, "worst_return": -0.228456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.169597, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.155798, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.495699, "worst_return": -0.318365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.235989, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.07377, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.269907, "worst_return": -0.005675, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 17.26, "volume": 41223391, "typical_volume": 52095883.55, "trend": 33.196969, "fair_value": 25.531292, "relative_strength": -41.504417, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.762438, "energy": 90.362675, "activity_lines": [ 20.57, 24.147624, 29.633362, 31.857241 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.280001, "volume": 37684215, "typical_volume": 49507293.2, "trend": 32.800969, "fair_value": 25.486772, "relative_strength": -40.198794, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.222095, "energy": 89.202464, "activity_lines": [ 18.848, 22.241891, 28.150557, 30.83034 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.92, "volume": 37635185, "typical_volume": 49244881.2, "trend": 32.511636, "fair_value": 25.444843, "relative_strength": -34.177108, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.365761, "energy": 85.260158, "activity_lines": [ 18.659334, 21.257455, 27.019038, 29.999309 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }