{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76c4902b-add9-4996-ba12-cdb0b06c9693", "symbol": "CUB", "name": "City Union Bank Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.674, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.765, "architecture_energy": 36.89, "architecture_maturity": 13.715, "architecture_confidence": 68.476, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.75, "rotation_up": 51.05, "upward_expansion": 75.37, "deceleration": 66.04, "rotation_down": 18.45, "downward_expansion": 4.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 214.094851, 212.362781, 204.971902, 202.024072 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 212.0, "trend_reference": 201.344479, "distance_from_trend": 0.052922, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 143.64913, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.475818, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.881998, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.033453, "excess_performance": 0.010256, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052922, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003377, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.475818, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024998, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.10882, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016019, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033453, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.678983, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16873818, "relative_activity": 1.084766, "balance": 0.678983, "dry_up": 1.230031, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071101, "annualized_volatility": 0.358059, "from_high_reference": -0.12794, "from_low_reference": 0.46081 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 201.344479, "fair_value_reference": 143.64913, "structural_low": 169.837494, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.019231, "positive_rate": 0.517241, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": 0.01158, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.18894, "worst_return": -0.11257, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.001122, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.021666, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.308476, "worst_return": -0.19281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.08874, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.034434, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.364076, "worst_return": -0.099319, "sufficient": true 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196.889107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 227.201462, "volume": 15987508, "typical_volume": 14893798.3, "trend": 201.239297, "fair_value": 140.617897, "relative_strength": 23.6204, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.387616, "energy": 61.113598, "activity_lines": [ 212.067525, 203.319001, 197.99714, 198.611804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 222.54509, "volume": 7747558, "typical_volume": 14745959.5, "trend": 201.686217, "fair_value": 141.429263, "relative_strength": 19.598024, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.472666, "energy": 67.260576, "activity_lines": [ 217.095626, 207.7419, 200.619333, 199.986371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 217.710373, "volume": 10444682, "typical_volume": 14704670.05, "trend": 201.634479, "fair_value": 142.197225, "relative_strength": 18.921301, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.468903, "energy": 65.172642, "activity_lines": [ 219.122481, 210.789713, 202.73223, 201.020187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 206.5, "volume": 41467699, "typical_volume": 15965152.5, "trend": 201.305313, "fair_value": 142.89918, "relative_strength": 9.417751, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.882614, "energy": 60.565131, "activity_lines": [ 216.008521, 211.25886, 203.668435, 201.334092 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 212.0, "volume": 16873818, "typical_volume": 15555255.25, "trend": 201.344479, "fair_value": 143.64913, "relative_strength": 10.881998, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.765061, "energy": 36.889532, "activity_lines": [ 214.094851, 212.362781, 204.971902, 202.024072 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }