{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76ca1678-9bdd-4865-8fca-d55f8a983240", "symbol": "NIACL", "name": "The New India Assurance Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.814, "architecture_energy": 22.663, "architecture_maturity": 52.163, "architecture_confidence": 94.13, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.67, "rotation_up": 27.09, "upward_expansion": 60.24, "deceleration": 90.67, "rotation_down": 26.32, "downward_expansion": 14.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 175.545999, 177.379726, 171.87889, 165.309589 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 177.110001, "trend_reference": 158.057173, "distance_from_trend": 0.120544, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 188.955198, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.062688, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.886281, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.1831, "excess_performance": 0.226809, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.120544, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021206, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.062688, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046757, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.068863, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068959, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1831, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.738074, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37189668, "relative_activity": 2.069519, "balance": 8.738074, "dry_up": 0.699022, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084381, "annualized_volatility": 0.577975, "from_high_reference": -0.164181, "from_low_reference": 0.514149 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 158.057173, "fair_value_reference": 188.955198, "structural_low": 116.970001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.048434, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.026558, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.652662, "worst_return": -0.057672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.139512, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.037981, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.10757, "worst_return": 0.000153, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.122927, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000766, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.593988, "worst_return": -0.203866, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0633, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039154, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002703, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040732, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066381, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.065845, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 173.199997, "volume": 2574056, "typical_volume": 16025347.1, "trend": 156.571173, "fair_value": 188.270985, "relative_strength": 7.737102, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.071415, "energy": 43.418139, "activity_lines": [ 177.917721, 176.46137, 169.259749, 162.920235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 173.619995, "volume": 6580251, "typical_volume": 16248951.95, "trend": 157.12384, "fair_value": 188.600818, "relative_strength": 5.417303, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.407627, "energy": 29.363622, "activity_lines": [ 175.833467, 176.684911, 170.496009, 164.020159 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 177.110001, "volume": 37189668, "typical_volume": 17970197.2, "trend": 158.057173, "fair_value": 188.955198, "relative_strength": 6.886281, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.813726, "energy": 22.663182, "activity_lines": [ 175.545999, 177.379726, 171.87889, 165.309589 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }