{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76ccfd7e-f9db-41d1-82c7-411608846930", "symbol": "EFAD", "name": "PROSHARES MSCI EAFE DIVIDEND GROWERS ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.62, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.32, "architecture_energy": 73.812, "architecture_maturity": 15.09, "architecture_confidence": 66.698, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.99, "rotation_up": 75.09, "upward_expansion": 90.65, "deceleration": 42.57, "rotation_down": 11.61, "downward_expansion": 14.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.847407, 43.395542, 42.920532, 42.627004 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 45.113, "trend_reference": 42.414531, "distance_from_trend": 0.063621, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.782582, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.163228, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.470835, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.060798, "excess_performance": -0.064827, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063621, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011988, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.163228, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049687, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044708, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050795, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060798, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.125169, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30605, "relative_activity": 1.743199, "balance": 1.125169, "dry_up": 1.275517, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02355, "annualized_volatility": 0.165245, "from_high_reference": -0.000598, "from_low_reference": 0.141235 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.414531, "fair_value_reference": 38.782582, "structural_low": 39.53, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.01333, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.009622, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.048048, "worst_return": -0.066201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.005677, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.050909, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.052692, "worst_return": -0.081799, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.021309, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.118689, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.036738, "worst_return": -0.033418, 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42.6121, "volume": 21880, "typical_volume": 16584.9, "trend": 42.255795, "fair_value": 38.658532, "relative_strength": -5.991835, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.316428, "energy": 48.34214, "activity_lines": [ 42.92022, 42.775565, 42.489368, 42.350962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.7457, "volume": 21982, "typical_volume": 16842.6, "trend": 42.324253, "fair_value": 38.716459, "relative_strength": -4.334342, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.011245, "energy": 53.552665, "activity_lines": [ 43.198433, 42.975741, 42.646986, 42.447085 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.113, "volume": 30605, "typical_volume": 17556.8, "trend": 42.414531, "fair_value": 38.782582, "relative_strength": -4.470835, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.319869, "energy": 73.811951, "activity_lines": [ 43.847407, 43.395542, 42.920532, 42.627004 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }