{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76cd1c99-b740-4181-95ed-13d6e5bc507d", "symbol": "ADH", "name": "Adairs Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 66.432, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 4.576, "architecture_energy": 11.641, "architecture_maturity": 24.401, "architecture_confidence": 62.809, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.62, "rotation_up": 31.36, "upward_expansion": 35.5, "deceleration": 41.69, "rotation_down": 21.76, "downward_expansion": 41.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.452, 1.439091, 1.38569, 1.397647 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.495, "trend_reference": 1.458127, "distance_from_trend": 0.025288, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.849569, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.191704, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.524328, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.133255, "excess_performance": -0.196961, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025288, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074698, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.191704, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150663, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175243, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.198048, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.133255, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.059596, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1949595, "relative_activity": 0.644237, "balance": 1.059596, "dry_up": 0.523548, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080525, "annualized_volatility": 0.444592, "from_high_reference": -0.462437, "from_low_reference": 0.266949 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.458127, "fair_value_reference": 1.849569, "structural_low": 1.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.027397, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.019686, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.242718, "worst_return": -0.286666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.040599, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.022257, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.262181, "worst_return": -0.254086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011163, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019056, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.314026, "worst_return": -0.39691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 1.451333, 1.403, 1.356822, 1.403835 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.415, "volume": 1234090, "typical_volume": 3711744.35, "trend": 1.478685, "fair_value": 1.850487, "relative_strength": -18.721032, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.273654, "energy": 19.863517, "activity_lines": [ 1.442333, 1.412091, 1.362595, 1.399059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.43, "volume": 1422555, "typical_volume": 3533259.75, "trend": 1.468211, "fair_value": 1.850086, "relative_strength": -19.183858, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.317, "energy": 13.97818, "activity_lines": [ 1.438, 1.421273, 1.370857, 1.395919 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.495, "volume": 1949595, "typical_volume": 3026208.25, "trend": 1.458127, "fair_value": 1.849569, "relative_strength": -17.524328, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.576268, "energy": 11.640994, "activity_lines": [ 1.452, 1.439091, 1.38569, 1.397647 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }