{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76d46939-9af7-4c6f-a5a5-1f887520587c", "symbol": "002588", "name": "Stanley Agriculture Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.288, "architecture_energy": 34.453, "architecture_maturity": 75.515, "architecture_confidence": 89.019, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.9, "rotation_up": 27.71, "upward_expansion": 18.58, "deceleration": 46.47, "rotation_down": 32.63, "downward_expansion": 66.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.621333, 8.50433, 8.855056, 9.294499 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.65, "trend_reference": 9.7913, "distance_from_trend": -0.116563, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.777727, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.11215, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.136785, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.242557, "excess_performance": -0.249957, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116563, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042387, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.11215, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.270903, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141368, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01171, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.242557, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.581833, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54268224, "relative_activity": 0.785937, "balance": 0.581833, "dry_up": 0.966451, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06163, "annualized_volatility": 0.353961, "from_high_reference": -0.290402, "from_low_reference": 0.08805 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.7913, "fair_value_reference": 7.777727, "structural_low": 7.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.018395, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.008353, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.099115, "worst_return": -0.070776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.041407, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.063276, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.077855, "worst_return": 0.004959, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.045021, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.070907, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.091695, "worst_return": -0.001653, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 8.329333, 8.397073, 8.979047, 9.429311 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.96, "volume": 60190370, "typical_volume": 76165871.4, "trend": 9.835633, "fair_value": 7.760758, "relative_strength": -6.79111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.761374, "energy": 45.062247, "activity_lines": [ 8.554667, 8.47688, 8.925004, 9.370991 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.65, "volume": 54268224, "typical_volume": 69049036.3, "trend": 9.7913, "fair_value": 7.777727, "relative_strength": -14.136785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.288403, "energy": 34.453464, "activity_lines": [ 8.621333, 8.50433, 8.855056, 9.294499 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }