{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76d7820f-b1f2-4276-a51d-93f688abd4a3", "symbol": "002062", "name": "Hongrun Construction Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.096, "architecture_energy": 28.734, "architecture_maturity": 31.639, "architecture_confidence": 63.768, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.0, "rotation_up": 20.14, "upward_expansion": 14.11, "deceleration": 62.09, "rotation_down": 44.32, "downward_expansion": 64.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.636667, 7.599273, 7.931548, 8.107719 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.09, "trend_reference": 8.444937, "distance_from_trend": -0.04203, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.787785, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.397771, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.379679, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.196864, "excess_performance": -0.204263, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04203, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077443, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.397771, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.366904, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113797, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132153, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.196864, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.411894, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63796016, "relative_activity": 0.630703, "balance": 0.411894, "dry_up": 0.894142, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095056, "annualized_volatility": 0.468023, "from_high_reference": -0.365584, "from_low_reference": 0.576871 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.444937, "fair_value_reference": 5.787785, "structural_low": 6.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.03866, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.021047, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.317618, "worst_return": -0.123596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.016326, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.005146, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.26279, "worst_return": -0.149028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.369874, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.165595, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.197674, "worst_return": -0.180873, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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{ "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.02, "volume": 138461566, "typical_volume": 105478173.65, "trend": 8.581084, "fair_value": 5.73864, "relative_strength": -19.044325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.479002, "energy": 64.86008, "activity_lines": [ 7.396667, 7.672362, 8.035319, 8.269077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.48, "volume": 95772316, "typical_volume": 104965969.75, "trend": 8.529907, "fair_value": 5.753815, "relative_strength": -14.4128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.196825, "energy": 48.286166, "activity_lines": [ 7.381333, 7.571108, 7.974337, 8.198039 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.52, "volume": 63742541, "typical_volume": 102848582.05, "trend": 8.480064, "fair_value": 5.769548, "relative_strength": -12.9475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.55766, "energy": 40.765497, "activity_lines": [ 7.414667, 7.516364, 7.924099, 8.132884 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.09, "volume": 63796016, "typical_volume": 101150722.4, "trend": 8.444937, "fair_value": 5.787785, "relative_strength": -11.379679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.096428, "energy": 28.734298, "activity_lines": [ 7.636667, 7.599273, 7.931548, 8.107719 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }