{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "76e85e5d-f13a-41ed-88d7-d95d43d9ecca",
    "symbol": "XDEB",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Minimum Volatility UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^SSMI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 55.663,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 93.4,
    "architecture_energy": 92.97,
    "architecture_maturity": 7.844,
    "architecture_confidence": 62.125,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 17.05,
        "rotation_up": 85.87,
        "upward_expansion": 96.11,
        "deceleration": 41.84,
        "rotation_down": 8.18,
        "downward_expansion": 20.45
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        50.134643,
        49.990989
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 52.27,
    "trend_reference": 49.873334,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.048055,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 45.520353,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.148278,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -4.874024,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.039578,
    "excess_performance": -0.043305,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.048055,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.00832,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.148278,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.045386,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.04874,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.013421,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.039578,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 5.795038,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 5.795038,
      "dry_up": 0.511912,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.012148,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.086593,
      "from_high_reference": 0.0,
      "from_low_reference": 0.0926
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 49.873334,
      "fair_value_reference": 45.520353,
      "structural_low": 48.439999,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 29,
        "median_return": 0.005386,
        "positive_rate": 0.586207,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.586207,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003087,
        "regime_survival": 0.724138,
        "best_return": 0.047509,
        "worst_return": -0.043184,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
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        "positive_rate": 0.583333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.583333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.013529,
        "regime_survival": 0.583333,
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        "worst_return": -0.055839,
        "sufficient": true
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      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.034543,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.034643,
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        "worst_return": 0.009167,
        "sufficient": true
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "close": 48.865002,
        "volume": 753,
        "typical_volume": 13078.35,
        "trend": 49.355167,
        "fair_value": 44.476026,
        "relative_strength": -4.41742,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -22.587038,
        "energy": 14.686961,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.277001,
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          49.531054
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 49.125,
        "volume": 1565,
        "typical_volume": 13107.85,
        "trend": 49.358,
        "fair_value": 44.541987,
        "relative_strength": -3.531899,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -15.191854,
        "energy": 13.586493,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.215334,
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          49.57712,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 49.439999,
        "volume": 37,
        "typical_volume": 13099.7,
        "trend": 49.380167,
        "fair_value": 44.611314,
        "relative_strength": -3.709528,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -12.282538,
        "energy": 15.802635,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.247667,
          49.264637,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 50.040001,
        "volume": 1375,
        "typical_volume": 13156.15,
        "trend": 49.411334,
        "fair_value": 44.690513,
        "relative_strength": -4.468064,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 16.113717,
        "energy": 9.012971,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.483334,
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          49.598072,
          49.564065
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 49.700001,
        "volume": 932,
        "typical_volume": 12705.65,
        "trend": 49.461834,
        "fair_value": 44.768077,
        "relative_strength": -5.250147,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 29.456182,
        "energy": 16.171407,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.606334,
          49.475728,
          49.600715,
          49.582689
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 49.674999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 12199.0,
        "trend": 49.514334,
        "fair_value": 44.843846,
        "relative_strength": -4.093887,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.15937,
        "energy": 20.700995,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.686667,
          49.533728,
          49.598596,
          49.596441
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 49.779999,
        "volume": 1435,
        "typical_volume": 12146.8,
        "trend": 49.5355,
        "fair_value": 44.915737,
        "relative_strength": -5.956889,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 27.849419,
        "energy": 21.165323,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 48.855,
        "volume": 4150,
        "typical_volume": 11947.2,
        "trend": 49.541,
        "fair_value": 44.984776,
        "relative_strength": -7.913143,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -26.599925,
        "energy": 11.072451,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.457333,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 49.125,
        "volume": 9100,
        "typical_volume": 12286.65,
        "trend": 49.525,
        "fair_value": 45.05359,
        "relative_strength": -9.742933,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -21.54764,
        "energy": 26.958794,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.295666,
          49.406545,
          49.459881,
          49.542839
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 50.27,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 11609.65,
        "trend": 49.571834,
        "fair_value": 45.132372,
        "relative_strength": -8.973417,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 31.03336,
        "energy": 13.860274,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.576666,
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          49.516714,
          49.590903
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 50.349998,
        "volume": 21534,
        "typical_volume": 12412.65,
        "trend": 49.622833,
        "fair_value": 45.207436,
        "relative_strength": -7.369343,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 36.325171,
        "energy": 30.62888,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.846333,
          49.725363,
          49.584214,
          49.641108
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 50.540001,
        "volume": 4472,
        "typical_volume": 12282.75,
        "trend": 49.673834,
        "fair_value": 45.28,
        "relative_strength": -7.484575,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 45.597023,
        "energy": 58.624776,
        "activity_lines": [
          50.134333,
          49.889727,
          49.671048,
          49.70028
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 50.18,
        "volume": 4188,
        "typical_volume": 12214.55,
        "trend": 49.709167,
        "fair_value": 45.350961,
        "relative_strength": -7.762137,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.797025,
        "energy": 64.786146,
        "activity_lines": [
          50.251667,
          49.962909,
          49.726976,
          49.732936
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 51.209999,
        "volume": 15767,
        "typical_volume": 12038.05,
        "trend": 49.771,
        "fair_value": 45.432692,
        "relative_strength": -5.751148,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.531355,
        "energy": 80.73295,
        "activity_lines": [
          50.624,
          50.209909,
          49.883047,
          49.829763
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 52.27,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 11929.3,
        "trend": 49.873334,
        "fair_value": 45.520353,
        "relative_strength": -4.874024,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 93.39959,
        "energy": 92.970184,
        "activity_lines": [
          51.210666,
          50.628363,
          50.134643,
          49.990989
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}