{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76f08ce6-a1a0-4ffc-a4cd-9ce482be7aee", "symbol": "GF", "name": "New Germany Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -9.098, "architecture_energy": 13.56, "architecture_maturity": 10.681, "architecture_confidence": 50.667, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.39, "rotation_up": 20.97, "upward_expansion": 16.72, "deceleration": 56.83, "rotation_down": 49.44, "downward_expansion": 41.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.366667, 11.438, 11.539444, 11.467047 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.56, "trend_reference": 11.462487, "distance_from_trend": 0.008507, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.565486, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.208512, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.781972, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.03781, "excess_performance": -0.163435, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008507, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018961, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.208512, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073778, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08782, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029855, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03781, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.785915, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 122280, "relative_activity": 0.602693, "balance": 0.785915, "dry_up": 0.672133, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053576, "annualized_volatility": 0.261729, "from_high_reference": -0.063968, "from_low_reference": 0.173332 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.462487, "fair_value_reference": 9.565486, "structural_low": 9.852285, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.009547, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.0119, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.192649, "worst_return": -0.037797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.004768, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.041272, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.152091, "worst_return": -0.151188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.006645, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.130766, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.139919, "worst_return": -0.076122, 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.47, "volume": 110740, "typical_volume": 191771.35, "trend": 11.464935, "fair_value": 9.499064, "relative_strength": -8.804276, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.363425, "energy": 13.697829, "activity_lines": [ 11.572, 11.677098, 11.552688, 11.50379 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.22, "volume": 119021, "typical_volume": 193157.6, "trend": 11.468051, "fair_value": 9.513535, "relative_strength": -8.995, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.689663, "energy": 10.088773, "activity_lines": [ 11.441333, 11.582859, 11.53837, 11.487988 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.33, "volume": 201431, "typical_volume": 201114.9, "trend": 11.475484, "fair_value": 9.528957, "relative_strength": -7.183912, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.27694, "energy": 12.398527, "activity_lines": [ 11.372, 11.521805, 11.537604, 11.479081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.2, "volume": 102743, "typical_volume": 203604.5, "trend": 11.471047, "fair_value": 9.54619, "relative_strength": -8.904737, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.361616, "energy": 22.336882, "activity_lines": [ 11.299333, 11.443273, 11.522451, 11.461308 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.56, "volume": 122280, "typical_volume": 202889.45, "trend": 11.462487, "fair_value": 9.565486, "relative_strength": -8.781972, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.097951, "energy": 13.560248, "activity_lines": [ 11.366667, 11.438, 11.539444, 11.467047 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }