{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76f21ebf-6b35-4886-8542-3fc49425b6b9", "symbol": "600058", "name": "Minmetals Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.3, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.458, "architecture_energy": 54.397, "architecture_maturity": 19.069, "architecture_confidence": 72.788, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.51, "rotation_up": 13.91, "upward_expansion": 12.54, "deceleration": 37.62, "rotation_down": 60.25, "downward_expansion": 78.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.62, 9.949818, 10.254109, 10.676814 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.65, "trend_reference": 11.370414, "distance_from_trend": -0.063359, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.773148, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.213931, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.62594, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.217945, "excess_performance": -0.174741, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063359, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01846, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.213931, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130365, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026259, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073889, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.217945, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.916908, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65135895, "relative_activity": 1.197509, "balance": 0.916908, "dry_up": 1.312521, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128576, "annualized_volatility": 0.673779, "from_high_reference": -0.355677, "from_low_reference": 0.354962 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.370414, "fair_value_reference": 8.773148, "structural_low": 7.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.004357, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.009529, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.812827, "worst_return": -0.297138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.034287, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.024677, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.277322, "worst_return": -0.23741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.068571, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.045932, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.286119, "worst_return": -0.091503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 8.778272, "relative_strength": -17.674311, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.416271, "energy": 34.929289, "activity_lines": [ 10.164, 10.306486, 10.597702, 11.045235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.35, "volume": 51256157, "typical_volume": 53472156.7, "trend": 11.426492, "fair_value": 8.768915, "relative_strength": -16.487112, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.578875, "energy": 65.590785, "activity_lines": [ 9.452667, 9.938, 10.352167, 10.84357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.59, "volume": 79112211, "typical_volume": 54268098.45, "trend": 11.398233, "fair_value": 8.768337, "relative_strength": -4.659673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.29468, "energy": 60.925252, "activity_lines": [ 9.283333, 9.839091, 10.245825, 10.725087 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.65, "volume": 65135895, "typical_volume": 54392843.3, "trend": 11.370414, "fair_value": 8.773148, "relative_strength": 2.62594, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.457612, "energy": 54.39722, "activity_lines": [ 9.62, 9.949818, 10.254109, 10.676814 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }