{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76f6172a-507c-4655-8339-4f9a985684f8", "symbol": "FENG", "name": "Phoenix New Media Limited", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.218, "architecture_energy": 46.97, "architecture_maturity": 86.1, "architecture_confidence": 88.193, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.32, "rotation_up": 22.16, "upward_expansion": 6.74, "deceleration": 56.69, "rotation_down": 54.69, "downward_expansion": 80.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.478667, 1.494727, 1.565545, 1.617891 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.5, "trend_reference": 1.685217, "distance_from_trend": -0.109907, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.065782, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.273883, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.143541, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.157303, "excess_performance": -0.282928, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.109907, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08723, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.273883, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083158, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.311435, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034034, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.157303, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.912204, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6164, "relative_activity": 0.100153, "balance": 2.912204, "dry_up": 0.186947, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075138, "annualized_volatility": 0.224083, "from_high_reference": -0.589041, "from_low_reference": 0.079137 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.685217, "fair_value_reference": 2.065782, "structural_low": 1.39, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.038251, "positive_rate": 0.405405, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": -0.051724, "regime_survival": 0.891892, "best_return": 0.414815, "worst_return": -0.276596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.078285, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.148415, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.565359, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.151346, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.262458, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.036797, "worst_return": -0.45, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.328358, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.505682, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084677, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.021097, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": 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1.4, "volume": 12567, "typical_volume": 65221.85, "trend": 1.703217, "fair_value": 2.067, "relative_strength": -34.018842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.292885, "energy": 76.385954, "activity_lines": [ 1.454, 1.507636, 1.592655, 1.642414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.52, "volume": 4788, "typical_volume": 64358.05, "trend": 1.696883, "fair_value": 2.065846, "relative_strength": -28.463172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.755169, "energy": 53.347732, "activity_lines": [ 1.468667, 1.501636, 1.579386, 1.630594 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.5, "volume": 6164, "typical_volume": 61545.55, "trend": 1.685217, "fair_value": 2.065782, "relative_strength": -31.143541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.217783, "energy": 46.969502, "activity_lines": [ 1.478667, 1.494727, 1.565545, 1.617891 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }