{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76f7ad90-3d73-4e10-ba0a-3644e27226d5", "symbol": "8518", "name": "Japan Asia Investment Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-18", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.805, "architecture_energy": 69.772, "architecture_maturity": 8.049, "architecture_confidence": 74.51, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.83, "rotation_up": 74.65, "upward_expansion": 52.74, "deceleration": 18.67, "rotation_down": 14.02, "downward_expansion": 34.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 150.866667, 144.854545, 139.061905, 141.03871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 155.0, "trend_reference": 147.533333, "distance_from_trend": 0.05061, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 213.198718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.272979, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.166443, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.098837, "excess_performance": -0.317047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05061, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122348, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.272979, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147763, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.251664, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.30545, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098837, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.43108, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 90400, "relative_activity": 0.580455, "balance": 6.43108, "dry_up": 2.202389, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043672, "annualized_volatility": 0.309509, "from_high_reference": -0.507937, "from_low_reference": 0.291667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 147.533333, "fair_value_reference": 213.198718, "structural_low": 120.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.073109, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.04329, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.108787, "worst_return": -0.156489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.136296, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.135749, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.085586, "worst_return": -0.164286, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.141221, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.234326, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.031532, "worst_return": -0.153571, "sufficient": false }, { 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004219, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051948, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101695, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.186813, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.022936, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", 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"relative_strength": -38.593236, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.055198, "energy": 29.02458, "activity_lines": [ 136.666667, 132.8, 134.585714, 141.354839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 137.0, "volume": 115700, "typical_volume": 146995.0, "trend": 151.5, "fair_value": 215.461538, "relative_strength": -38.52506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.629204, "energy": 28.520929, "activity_lines": [ 137.666667, 133.981818, 134.428571, 140.283871 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 153.0, "volume": 992700, "typical_volume": 170935.0, "trend": 150.033333, "fair_value": 214.634615, "relative_strength": -28.562973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 23.592897, "energy": 35.517002, "activity_lines": [ 143.133333, 137.927273, 135.890476, 140.380645 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 154.0, "volume": 173200, "typical_volume": 164355.0, "trend": 148.766667, "fair_value": 213.852564, "relative_strength": -25.748721, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 24.81804, "energy": 40.929624, "activity_lines": [ 147.6, 141.545455, 137.438095, 140.636559 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 155.0, "volume": 90400, "typical_volume": 155740.0, "trend": 147.533333, "fair_value": 213.198718, "relative_strength": -25.166443, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.805193, "energy": 69.771673, "activity_lines": [ 150.866667, 144.854545, 139.061905, 141.03871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }