{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76faa72b-9240-4033-8c96-a977e65b55ab", "symbol": "329660", "name": "Samsung Kodex TRF5050 ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.087, "architecture_energy": 19.238, "architecture_maturity": 56.049, "architecture_confidence": 71.643, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.54, "rotation_up": 19.21, "upward_expansion": 43.45, "deceleration": 84.71, "rotation_down": 40.33, "downward_expansion": 32.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 18090.19401, 18227.162145, 18258.653274, 18133.143271 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18155.0, "trend_reference": 17967.51849, "distance_from_trend": 0.010434, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15615.261788, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.162645, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.50926, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.035996, "excess_performance": -0.193833, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010434, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016162, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.162645, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036836, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185093, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.254083, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035996, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.960019, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54763, "relative_activity": 0.397205, "balance": 1.960019, "dry_up": 0.552994, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019354, "annualized_volatility": 0.066819, "from_high_reference": -0.030562, "from_low_reference": 0.107013 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17967.51849, "fair_value_reference": 15615.261788, "structural_low": 17125.154474, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.002973, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012479, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.038412, "worst_return": -0.034312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.030924, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.025143, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.048512, "worst_return": -0.003709, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.057882, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.089487, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084763, "worst_return": -0.008896, "sufficient": false }, { 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17890.0, "volume": 73696, "typical_volume": 147457.15, "trend": 17950.076693, "fair_value": 15580.187707, "relative_strength": -24.704309, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.392419, "energy": 15.605884, "activity_lines": [ 18117.89987, 18264.936328, 18255.845006, 18119.922413 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18155.0, "volume": 54763, "typical_volume": 137870.85, "trend": 17967.51849, "fair_value": 15615.261788, "relative_strength": -18.50926, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.086699, "energy": 19.238165, "activity_lines": [ 18090.19401, 18227.162145, 18258.653274, 18133.143271 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }