{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76fbf569-f982-41f2-9319-f51075f7f50a", "symbol": "EUPA", "name": "Franklin STOXX Europe 600 Paris Aligned Climate UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.239, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.423, "architecture_energy": 76.426, "architecture_maturity": 34.031, "architecture_confidence": 78.805, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.52, "rotation_up": 59.82, "upward_expansion": 86.13, "deceleration": 54.77, "rotation_down": 24.97, "downward_expansion": 15.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.453999, 43.225272, 42.384595, 41.731215 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 44.119999, "trend_reference": 41.126167, "distance_from_trend": 0.072796, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.787885, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16757, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.231103, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.080975, "excess_performance": -0.089917, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072796, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033217, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16757, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074548, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052311, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033083, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080975, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.25409, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 595, "relative_activity": 1.15366, "balance": 1.25409, "dry_up": 0.669898, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016119, "annualized_volatility": 0.159067, "from_high_reference": -0.002036, "from_low_reference": 0.205959 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.126167, "fair_value_reference": 37.787885, "structural_low": 36.584999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.003568, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.01379, "regime_survival": 0.68, "best_return": 0.057105, "worst_return": -0.094405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.006584, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.045795, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.062345, "worst_return": -0.04254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.03957, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.050142, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.099574, "worst_return": -0.076702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -4.759224, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.020351, "energy": 85.152166, "activity_lines": [ 43.100332, 42.660999, 41.678476, 41.231537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.009998, "volume": 277, "typical_volume": 1006.9, "trend": 40.8925, "fair_value": 37.656859, "relative_strength": -4.499917, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.290482, "energy": 79.727806, "activity_lines": [ 43.092999, 42.813817, 41.886357, 41.376193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.290001, "volume": 97, "typical_volume": 690.85, "trend": 41.014667, "fair_value": 37.718013, "relative_strength": -4.399833, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.497392, "energy": 62.493923, "activity_lines": [ 43.150999, 42.960909, 42.105976, 41.530871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.119999, "volume": 595, "typical_volume": 515.75, "trend": 41.126167, "fair_value": 37.787885, "relative_strength": -5.231103, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.422758, "energy": 76.42556, "activity_lines": [ 43.453999, 43.225272, 42.384595, 41.731215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }