{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77018a35-af2e-411b-a6a6-da5236c1f48e", "symbol": "ATE", "name": "Alten S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 90.641, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 57.944, "architecture_energy": 74.167, "architecture_maturity": 22.765, "architecture_confidence": 80.189, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.88, "rotation_up": 73.85, "upward_expansion": 60.11, "deceleration": 27.3, "rotation_down": 21.38, "downward_expansion": 27.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.353333, 63.110667, 60.91911, 60.215923 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 75.699997, "trend_reference": 61.31697, "distance_from_trend": 0.234568, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 88.875464, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.148246, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.256368, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.070721, "excess_performance": 0.01741, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.234568, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048675, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.148246, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.224596, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.092564, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.225015, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070721, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.890237, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 266164, "relative_activity": 0.71225, "balance": 2.890237, "dry_up": 1.23299, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069254, "annualized_volatility": 0.50971, "from_high_reference": -0.09881, "from_low_reference": 0.48723 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.31697, "fair_value_reference": 88.875464, "structural_low": 50.900002, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.036491, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.032215, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.060921, "worst_return": -0.179434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.131847, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.146145, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.004458, "worst_return": -0.260422, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.236085, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.233748, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.073333, "worst_return": -0.270758, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"direction": -66.464581, "energy": 64.780758, "activity_lines": [ 54.727082, 57.104241, 57.280474, 58.849335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 56.450001, "volume": 512170, "typical_volume": 371692.7, "trend": 61.580303, "fair_value": 89.973478, "relative_strength": -15.473198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.988855, "energy": 60.003687, "activity_lines": [ 55.006666, 56.735956, 57.192812, 58.479853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.400002, "volume": 398284, "typical_volume": 373444.2, "trend": 61.21697, "fair_value": 89.535128, "relative_strength": -9.441937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.155525, "energy": 23.615606, "activity_lines": [ 56.813334, 57.145009, 57.51515, 58.403704 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.900002, "volume": 666429, "typical_volume": 390881.05, "trend": 61.293637, "fair_value": 89.1953, "relative_strength": 10.588988, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.270639, "energy": 34.740558, "activity_lines": [ 63.166668, 60.179536, 59.220821, 59.28648 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.699997, "volume": 266164, "typical_volume": 373694.6, "trend": 61.31697, "fair_value": 88.875464, "relative_strength": 9.256368, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 57.944179, "energy": 74.167367, "activity_lines": [ 68.353333, 63.110667, 60.91911, 60.215923 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }