{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7706af3f-0c2a-412a-ad26-e02a364b9376", "symbol": "FPE3", "name": "Fuchs SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.526, "architecture_energy": 65.694, "architecture_maturity": 23.345, "architecture_confidence": 81.628, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 64.7, "upward_expansion": 86.31, "deceleration": 49.46, "rotation_down": 17.12, "downward_expansion": 12.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.449334, 39.998182, 39.23942, 38.323844 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 40.880001, "trend_reference": 37.442491, "distance_from_trend": 0.091808, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.861443, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051942, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.377239, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.109477, "excess_performance": 0.044837, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.091808, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022229, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.051942, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074874, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003772, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048337, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109477, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.295174, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 519193, "relative_activity": 1.167045, "balance": 1.295174, "dry_up": 1.039537, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035225, "annualized_volatility": 0.230774, "from_high_reference": -0.02944, "from_low_reference": 0.326488 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.442491, "fair_value_reference": 38.861443, "structural_low": 30.818222, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.002015, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.01718, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.138754, "worst_return": -0.147917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.029358, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.028686, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.083152, "worst_return": -0.157137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.030819, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.050506, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.076307, "worst_return": -0.062276, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 36.95944, "fair_value": 38.707094, "relative_strength": 0.645451, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.217968, "energy": 54.536603, "activity_lines": [ 39.226667, 39.001819, 38.097442, 37.470997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.66, "volume": 302803, "typical_volume": 506374.7, "trend": 37.06034, "fair_value": 38.737261, "relative_strength": 2.911049, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.195269, "energy": 43.176439, "activity_lines": [ 39.337334, 39.189455, 38.347677, 37.645227 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.060001, "volume": 455654, "typical_volume": 498931.4, "trend": 37.2092, "fair_value": 38.779351, "relative_strength": 5.484544, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.576743, "energy": 56.019858, "activity_lines": [ 39.918667, 39.591637, 38.71203, 37.90327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.16, "volume": 572221, "typical_volume": 484773.85, "trend": 37.311907, "fair_value": 38.81579, "relative_strength": 1.155321, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.006018, "energy": 57.919028, "activity_lines": [ 40.109334, 39.753455, 38.95879, 38.093644 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.880001, "volume": 519193, "typical_volume": 444878.4, "trend": 37.442491, "fair_value": 38.861443, "relative_strength": 0.377239, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.525907, "energy": 65.694034, "activity_lines": [ 40.449334, 39.998182, 39.23942, 38.323844 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }