{ "ticker": { "uuid": "770b75c1-ee8f-401d-8801-2a56249462dc", "symbol": "1214", "name": "Al Hassan Ghazi Ibrahim Shaker Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.665, "architecture_energy": 82.014, "architecture_maturity": 92.767, "architecture_confidence": 89.196, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.35, "rotation_up": 16.98, "upward_expansion": 17.34, "deceleration": 41.26, "rotation_down": 76.81, "downward_expansion": 95.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.968, 13.315091, 14.017095, 14.599204 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 12.61, "trend_reference": 15.464667, "distance_from_trend": -0.184593, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.446154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.383258, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.005891, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.271098, "excess_performance": -0.239269, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184593, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106324, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.383258, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126602, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.280059, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052717, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.271098, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.144609, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13657993, "relative_activity": 5.528434, "balance": 0.144609, "dry_up": 1.989816, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051119, "annualized_volatility": 0.179485, "from_high_reference": -0.476039, "from_low_reference": 0.033607 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.464667, "fair_value_reference": 20.446154, "structural_low": 12.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.025884, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.036236, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.222222, "worst_return": -0.198522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.006034, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052378, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.536643, "worst_return": -0.458586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.110901, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.178899, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.560284, "worst_return": -0.465121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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14.010667, 14.341273, 14.980857, 15.525487 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.49, "volume": 3309818, "typical_volume": 1778920.85, "trend": 16.120556, "fair_value": 20.601562, "relative_strength": -26.002999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.498642, "energy": 84.406658, "activity_lines": [ 13.781333, 14.129273, 14.793952, 15.342222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.27, "volume": 1543970, "typical_volume": 1834736.65, "trend": 15.970111, "fair_value": 20.56033, "relative_strength": -25.825615, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.738959, "energy": 87.504523, "activity_lines": [ 13.566, 13.920545, 14.603762, 15.158315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.2, "volume": 1774367, "typical_volume": 1741179.0, "trend": 15.817056, "fair_value": 20.519789, "relative_strength": -25.939297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.509121, "energy": 85.919889, "activity_lines": [ 13.398667, 13.738727, 14.422667, 14.979599 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.96, "volume": 2687029, "typical_volume": 1823234.25, "trend": 15.649056, "fair_value": 20.482954, "relative_strength": -25.105763, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.900636, "energy": 86.983374, "activity_lines": [ 13.219333, 13.542182, 14.231095, 14.795272 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.61, "volume": 13657993, "typical_volume": 2470499.6, "trend": 15.464667, "fair_value": 20.446154, "relative_strength": -28.005891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.66484, "energy": 82.014015, "activity_lines": [ 12.968, 13.315091, 14.017095, 14.599204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }