{ "ticker": { "uuid": "770ec112-cdde-42f4-b0aa-6d80cfcb40ae", "symbol": "VPL", "name": "VANGUARD INTL EQUITY INDEX FUND INC FTSE PACIFIC ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.656, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.755, "architecture_energy": 20.092, "architecture_maturity": 55.205, "architecture_confidence": 88.728, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.95, "rotation_up": 23.32, "upward_expansion": 53.35, "deceleration": 90.67, "rotation_down": 39.45, "downward_expansion": 24.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 110.710667, 111.758727, 111.658333, 109.554237 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 113.75, "trend_reference": 106.739, "distance_from_trend": 0.065684, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 79.178578, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.436626, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.16944, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.118266, "excess_performance": -0.007359, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065684, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076346, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.436626, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079864, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031694, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09685, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.118266, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.411685, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1492232, "relative_activity": 0.435169, "balance": 1.411685, "dry_up": 0.536416, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052311, "annualized_volatility": 0.281606, "from_high_reference": -0.061701, "from_low_reference": 0.383615 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 106.739, "fair_value_reference": 79.178578, "structural_low": 94.01, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.016449, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.013591, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.10466, "worst_return": -0.015841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.04179, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.021009, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.210161, "worst_return": 0.032111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.037651, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.097959, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.045879, "worst_return": 0.029423, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 55.856926, "energy": 41.957399, "activity_lines": [ 114.484667, 114.185818, 111.000048, 108.358172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 108.0, "volume": 2127753, "typical_volume": 4942148.7, "trend": 104.942333, "fair_value": 78.288654, "relative_strength": 2.622, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.838021, "energy": 19.202964, "activity_lines": [ 112.096667, 113.125273, 111.021429, 108.595699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 108.67, "volume": 1255919, "typical_volume": 3902343.0, "trend": 105.538, "fair_value": 78.56366, "relative_strength": 3.603702, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.450296, "energy": 20.11799, "activity_lines": [ 110.377333, 112.293636, 111.111048, 108.836194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 109.03, "volume": 2481772, "typical_volume": 3640539.35, "trend": 106.112333, "fair_value": 78.853862, "relative_strength": 2.58175, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.946016, "energy": 17.877522, "activity_lines": [ 109.556667, 111.570909, 111.188286, 109.061484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 113.75, "volume": 1492232, "typical_volume": 3429089.05, "trend": 106.739, "fair_value": 79.178578, "relative_strength": 3.16944, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.754858, "energy": 20.092123, "activity_lines": [ 110.710667, 111.758727, 111.658333, 109.554237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }