{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77143a70-3146-4a02-9268-9f286aeec41d", "symbol": "300136", "name": "Shenzhen Sunway Communication Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.919, "architecture_energy": 52.257, "architecture_maturity": 16.489, "architecture_confidence": 63.154, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.28, "rotation_up": 14.05, "upward_expansion": 24.05, "deceleration": 52.79, "rotation_down": 67.16, "downward_expansion": 49.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.442001, 79.819819, 87.948704, 85.716026 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 68.120003, "trend_reference": 83.185852, "distance_from_trend": -0.181111, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.651272, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.965873, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.872749, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.148431, "excess_performance": -0.15583, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.181111, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.255312, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.965873, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.586257, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.108727, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.870874, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.148431, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.620323, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 342362082, "relative_activity": 0.959403, "balance": 0.620323, "dry_up": 0.940607, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.271959, "annualized_volatility": 0.870631, "from_high_reference": -0.453071, "from_low_reference": 1.895119 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 83.185852, "fair_value_reference": 34.651272, "structural_low": 55.549999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.131928, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.041038, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.389313, "worst_return": -0.125458, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.189567, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.018416, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.189567, "worst_return": 0.189567, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.124523, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.082574, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.124523, "worst_return": 0.124523, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090192, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074627, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06717, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006221, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.114729, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.501445, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.267738, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.238316, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081349, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 18.37771, "volume": 31162968, "typical_volume": 86172035.3, "trend": 19.045913, "fair_value": 26.181457, "relative_strength": 5.261601, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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"direction": 9.394277, "energy": 9.761458, "activity_lines": [ 93.113333, 98.644446, 94.937857, 89.557354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 62.57, "volume": 363218794, "typical_volume": 352516443.7, "trend": 82.774129, "fair_value": 34.089321, "relative_strength": 8.059989, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.766823, "energy": 32.107642, "activity_lines": [ 80.828, 91.520545, 92.561953, 88.306674 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.48, "volume": 283419606, "typical_volume": 352354512.1, "trend": 82.980909, "fair_value": 34.331267, "relative_strength": -0.239683, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.911498, "energy": 42.985283, "activity_lines": [ 69.838, 84.143818, 89.732898, 86.674794 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.120003, "volume": 342362082, "typical_volume": 356849016.35, "trend": 83.185852, "fair_value": 34.651272, "relative_strength": 10.872749, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.919115, "energy": 52.256968, "activity_lines": [ 66.442001, 79.819819, 87.948704, 85.716026 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }