{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77163bbf-2eb2-4b2f-8ea5-31ab47887b02", "symbol": "MLPHO", "name": "Photonike Capital SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.605, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.148, "architecture_energy": 42.424, "architecture_maturity": 31.133, "architecture_confidence": 91.633, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.94, "rotation_up": 20.13, "upward_expansion": 7.6, "deceleration": 44.86, "rotation_down": 51.91, "downward_expansion": 73.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.105533, 0.1074, 0.109662, 0.112209 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.1, "trend_reference": 0.116167, "distance_from_trend": -0.139168, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.129192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.22596, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.190527, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.259259, "excess_performance": -0.312571, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139168, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011067, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.22596, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025066, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201905, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103377, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.259259, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.743223, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108987, "relative_activity": 3.256736, "balance": 0.743223, "dry_up": 1.541666, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082308, "annualized_volatility": 0.491333, "from_high_reference": -0.324324, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.116167, "fair_value_reference": 0.129192, "structural_low": 0.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.026368, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.02439, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.290005, "worst_return": -0.195403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.043625, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.268941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.04484, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.001937, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.180952, "worst_return": -0.445403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 0.13584, "relative_strength": -6.421471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.950209, "energy": 15.344077, "activity_lines": [ 0.112133, 0.110727, 0.112095, 0.114318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.101, "volume": 36502, "typical_volume": 29639.85, "trend": 0.116633, "fair_value": 0.130141, "relative_strength": -18.282832, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.248458, "energy": 32.827443, "activity_lines": [ 0.108733, 0.109109, 0.110881, 0.113282 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1, "volume": 108987, "typical_volume": 33465.1, "trend": 0.116167, "fair_value": 0.129192, "relative_strength": -20.190527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.147782, "energy": 42.424202, "activity_lines": [ 0.105533, 0.1074, 0.109662, 0.112209 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }