{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7726ff71-1365-43cd-89e2-03596924dba9", "symbol": "FMHI", "name": "FIRST TRUST MUNICIPAL HIGH INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.632, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.742, "architecture_energy": 21.53, "architecture_maturity": 30.916, "architecture_confidence": 76.492, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.32, "rotation_up": 20.0, "upward_expansion": 48.99, "deceleration": 90.95, "rotation_down": 41.56, "downward_expansion": 26.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.785783, 47.951275, 47.924038, 47.841474 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 47.8811, "trend_reference": 47.733102, "distance_from_trend": 0.003101, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.141234, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.060695, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.332778, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.007602, "excess_performance": -0.179852, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003101, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007702, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.060695, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011332, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113328, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029826, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007602, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.463516, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 606176, "relative_activity": 1.187832, "balance": 1.463516, "dry_up": 1.080445, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008727, "annualized_volatility": 0.039111, "from_high_reference": -0.011564, "from_low_reference": 0.076571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.733102, "fair_value_reference": 45.141234, "structural_low": 46.736538, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.006065, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.000339, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.029459, "worst_return": -0.035486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.004015, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021532, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.028233, "worst_return": -0.101232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.008098, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.057204, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.059841, "worst_return": 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65.391334, "activity_lines": [ 48.056847, 47.908782, 47.767606, 47.670038 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 48.294809, "volume": 421754, "typical_volume": 524258.5, "trend": 47.541092, "fair_value": 44.902912, "relative_strength": -10.114046, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.21619, "energy": 71.8252, "activity_lines": [ 48.167273, 47.990523, 47.823948, 47.721523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 48.412773, "volume": 356570, "typical_volume": 506701.95, "trend": 47.594881, "fair_value": 44.946681, "relative_strength": -10.363741, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.433944, "energy": 75.168087, "activity_lines": [ 48.263792, 48.086456, 47.887833, 47.777761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 48.197368, "volume": 567236, "typical_volume": 511595.3, "trend": 47.640529, "fair_value": 44.987648, "relative_strength": -12.025009, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.448527, "energy": 65.494863, "activity_lines": [ 48.258637, 48.131932, 47.928125, 47.816631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.097337, "volume": 562417, "typical_volume": 516633.1, "trend": 47.679258, "fair_value": 45.026301, "relative_strength": -8.162614, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.023053, "energy": 47.277027, "activity_lines": [ 48.21459, 48.149754, 47.957213, 47.846103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.5688, "volume": 659659, "typical_volume": 526521.5, "trend": 47.699063, "fair_value": 45.062705, "relative_strength": -7.483201, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.962175, "energy": 15.344562, "activity_lines": [ 47.996387, 48.066435, 47.935776, 47.838976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.5707, "volume": 377245, "typical_volume": 508728.55, "trend": 47.714018, "fair_value": 45.101231, "relative_strength": -7.702152, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.339739, "energy": 15.844032, "activity_lines": [ 47.815215, 47.981313, 47.915174, 47.830695 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.8811, "volume": 606176, "typical_volume": 510321.5, "trend": 47.733102, "fair_value": 45.141234, "relative_strength": -11.332778, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.741847, "energy": 21.530411, "activity_lines": [ 47.785783, 47.951275, 47.924038, 47.841474 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }