{ "ticker": { "uuid": "772793f1-b75f-4ee6-94ff-27298d18d182", "symbol": "603659", "name": "Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.068, "architecture_energy": 81.317, "architecture_maturity": 18.324, "architecture_confidence": 90.197, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.07, "rotation_up": 11.05, "upward_expansion": 20.33, "deceleration": 37.29, "rotation_down": 69.84, "downward_expansion": 91.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.679333, 24.806, 27.505088, 28.633077 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.1, "trend_reference": 29.356196, "distance_from_trend": -0.179049, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.722198, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109464, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.799637, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.12466, "excess_performance": -0.081457, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.179049, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01968, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.109464, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.406648, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127996, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.365079, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.12466, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.745055, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129597031, "relative_activity": 0.628437, "balance": 0.745055, "dry_up": 0.748957, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10233, "annualized_volatility": 0.585135, "from_high_reference": -0.360064, "from_low_reference": 0.399634 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.356196, "fair_value_reference": 21.722198, "structural_low": 21.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.06692, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.037006, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.346958, "worst_return": -0.187857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.092437, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.098959, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.725541, "worst_return": -0.285744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.179483, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.179654, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.232477, "worst_return": -0.278081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.518108, "energy": 64.579207, "activity_lines": [ 26.801334, 28.052364, 30.2228, 30.25482 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.700001, "volume": 147142775, "typical_volume": 229522314.7, "trend": 29.68397, "fair_value": 21.983843, "relative_strength": -17.037299, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -60.67799, "energy": 78.72056, "activity_lines": [ 24.904001, 26.656728, 29.345951, 29.730366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.83, "volume": 192530938, "typical_volume": 228782539.8, "trend": 29.59567, "fair_value": 21.897782, "relative_strength": -10.377599, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.202234, "energy": 82.15597, "activity_lines": [ 24.159334, 25.871819, 28.703091, 29.352691 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.799999, "volume": 148532756, "typical_volume": 221709249.4, "trend": 29.458348, "fair_value": 21.803466, "relative_strength": -11.16996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.658281, "energy": 82.795993, "activity_lines": [ 23.782667, 25.233818, 28.069799, 28.978777 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.1, "volume": 129597031, "typical_volume": 206221188.05, "trend": 29.356196, "fair_value": 21.722198, "relative_strength": -12.799637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.067994, "energy": 81.317246, "activity_lines": [ 23.679333, 24.806, 27.505088, 28.633077 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }