{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7727c71a-23fb-457f-aa68-1c93650cc5f1", "symbol": "VIS", "name": "Viscofan, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 86.175, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.983, "architecture_energy": 36.374, "architecture_maturity": 4.108, "architecture_confidence": 90.74, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.85, "rotation_up": 17.93, "upward_expansion": 9.14, "deceleration": 39.39, "rotation_down": 49.65, "downward_expansion": 77.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.720001, 56.998182, 57.267125, 57.459387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 57.400002, "trend_reference": 57.477729, "distance_from_trend": -0.001352, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.514524, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.033964, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.055223, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.030521, "excess_performance": -0.09391, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001352, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02568, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price 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"A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.000837, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024582, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.009967, "worst_return": -0.058452, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.053494, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.097263, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.020101, "worst_return": -0.086888, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.092668, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.249111, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.05393, "worst_return": -0.131407, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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55.099998, "volume": 639218, "typical_volume": 403065.6, "trend": 57.104396, "fair_value": 55.414657, "relative_strength": -15.514015, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.74889, "energy": 7.068472, "activity_lines": [ 57.326666, 57.529669, 57.671065, 57.612564 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 56.200001, "volume": 521315, "typical_volume": 404324.2, "trend": 57.197729, "fair_value": 55.428155, "relative_strength": -12.462613, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.000342, "energy": 31.946355, "activity_lines": [ 56.806667, 57.287927, 57.505675, 57.554216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.700001, "volume": 455137, "typical_volume": 382173.45, "trend": 57.277729, "fair_value": 55.449706, "relative_strength": -14.289568, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.278364, "energy": 47.963956, "activity_lines": [ 56.306667, 56.983598, 57.307428, 57.457589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.299999, "volume": 571501, "typical_volume": 388861.6, "trend": 57.394396, "fair_value": 55.482639, "relative_strength": -12.051737, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.441841, "energy": 35.235522, "activity_lines": [ 56.453333, 56.981162, 57.279658, 57.459026 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.400002, "volume": 353677, "typical_volume": 380352.9, "trend": 57.477729, "fair_value": 55.514524, "relative_strength": -13.055223, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.983329, "energy": 36.37382, "activity_lines": [ 56.720001, 56.998182, 57.267125, 57.459387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }