{ "ticker": { "uuid": "772e09eb-a84c-4e82-b5e6-edfd3b0378a8", "symbol": "ISAE4", "name": "ISA Energ\u00eda Brasil S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 51.116, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.765, "architecture_energy": 60.234, "architecture_maturity": 17.114, "architecture_confidence": 79.914, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.6, "rotation_up": 12.98, "upward_expansion": 14.01, "deceleration": 35.84, "rotation_down": 70.89, "downward_expansion": 87.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.954, 27.419454, 27.866176, 28.044572 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26.27, "trend_reference": 28.063821, "distance_from_trend": -0.063919, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.614536, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.161642, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.211778, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.070601, "excess_performance": -0.013552, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063919, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020038, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.161642, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223087, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032118, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084629, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.070601, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.307649, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15238400, "relative_activity": 1.235932, "balance": 0.307649, "dry_up": 1.588558, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056133, "annualized_volatility": 0.260852, "from_high_reference": -0.180174, "from_low_reference": 0.294255 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.063821, "fair_value_reference": 22.614536, "structural_low": 26.08, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.004582, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.01501, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.089572, "worst_return": -0.071749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.028176, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.042684, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.170055, "worst_return": -0.052498, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.00784, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001331, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.268263, "worst_return": -0.098468, 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28.279687, 28.190835 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.0, "volume": 11053000, "typical_volume": 11379910.0, "trend": 27.963677, "fair_value": 22.426339, "relative_strength": 7.202151, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.120677, "energy": 26.18003, "activity_lines": [ 28.522, 28.125455, 28.433703, 28.331129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.01, "volume": 22616200, "typical_volume": 11439545.0, "trend": 28.034781, "fair_value": 22.482131, "relative_strength": 2.434835, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.313726, "energy": 18.283117, "activity_lines": [ 28.47, 28.092364, 28.393613, 28.334118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.459999, "volume": 23627800, "typical_volume": 12168350.0, "trend": 28.022556, "fair_value": 22.527292, "relative_strength": -3.360823, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.00333, "energy": 11.635052, "activity_lines": [ 27.856, 27.820364, 28.206084, 28.232519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.89, "volume": 16862000, "typical_volume": 12305350.0, "trend": 28.050617, "fair_value": 22.572827, "relative_strength": -3.956139, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.904295, "energy": 19.34249, "activity_lines": [ 27.464666, 27.664364, 28.064394, 28.159451 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.27, "volume": 15238400, "typical_volume": 12329480.0, "trend": 28.063821, "fair_value": 22.614536, "relative_strength": -3.211778, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.76469, "energy": 60.234077, "activity_lines": [ 26.954, 27.419454, 27.866176, 28.044572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }