{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7743466d-3379-48a5-8d36-cbfc5e164310", "symbol": "KOLD", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST II ULTRASHORT BLOOMBERG NATURAL GAS(R/S)", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.518, "architecture_energy": 77.173, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.906, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.22, "rotation_up": 78.52, "upward_expansion": 92.3, "deceleration": 41.88, "rotation_down": 8.65, "downward_expansion": 16.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.025333, 26.975636, 25.696857, 24.761419 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 31.22, "trend_reference": 24.057, "distance_from_trend": 0.297751, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.184167, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.223077, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.321816, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.712562, "excess_performance": 0.586937, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.297751, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078958, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.223077, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120355, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023218, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140721, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.712562, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.524061, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9961416, "relative_activity": 0.622665, "balance": 1.524061, "dry_up": 0.611762, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109922, "annualized_volatility": 0.625978, "from_high_reference": -0.36891, "from_low_reference": 1.322917 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.057, "fair_value_reference": 40.184167, "structural_low": 17.41, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.098305, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.082517, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.844809, "worst_return": -0.471676, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.091834, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.147769, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.280874, "worst_return": -0.738893, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.438213, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.528256, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.764208, "worst_return": -0.841536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-12.94692, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.549997, "energy": 22.157709, "activity_lines": [ 25.314667, 24.28, 24.210762, 23.940043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.88, "volume": 9546027, "typical_volume": 19161785.2, "trend": 24.927333, "fair_value": 40.145288, "relative_strength": -12.88329, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.550716, "energy": 36.833645, "activity_lines": [ 26.172, 24.816545, 24.532381, 24.053677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.34, "volume": 10458161, "typical_volume": 17497085.15, "trend": 24.662667, "fair_value": 40.138622, "relative_strength": -5.46948, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.74056, "energy": 58.558167, "activity_lines": [ 27.537333, 25.756909, 25.049571, 24.338366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.22, "volume": 9961416, "typical_volume": 15998028.5, "trend": 24.057, "fair_value": 40.184167, "relative_strength": -2.321816, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.518177, "energy": 77.173484, "activity_lines": [ 29.025333, 26.975636, 25.696857, 24.761419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }