{ "ticker": { "uuid": "774756e9-1296-43a0-8674-0a18e1b6c37f", "symbol": "TIP10E", "name": "UBS BBG TIPS 10+ UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.979, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.919, "architecture_energy": 81.785, "architecture_maturity": 8.616, "architecture_confidence": 81.508, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.03, "rotation_up": 8.33, "upward_expansion": 18.96, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 82.33, "downward_expansion": 96.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.2354, 9.340145, 9.416914, 9.460871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 9.215, "trend_reference": 9.526567, "distance_from_trend": -0.032705, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.685571, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.048585, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.077442, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.041701, "excess_performance": -0.212593, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032705, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009359, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.048585, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030707, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.180774, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057126, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041701, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.651366, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18933, "relative_activity": 0.739067, "balance": 0.651366, "dry_up": 1.522751, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0148, "annualized_volatility": 0.089375, "from_high_reference": -0.086357, "from_low_reference": 0.009421 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.526567, "fair_value_reference": 9.685571, "structural_low": 9.129, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.003023, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.03106, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.054802, "worst_return": -0.132509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.011712, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.102158, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.076349, "worst_return": -0.15156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.031376, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.119262, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.023686, "worst_return": -0.127862, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008356, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009808, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000104, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024334, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 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9.553903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.377, "volume": 24068, "typical_volume": 23481.4, "trend": 9.573633, "fair_value": 9.71411, "relative_strength": -16.614391, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.261296, "energy": 27.29314, "activity_lines": [ 9.496667, 9.509164, 9.511229, 9.540802 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.387, "volume": 20867, "typical_volume": 24509.75, "trend": 9.565267, "fair_value": 9.705603, "relative_strength": -14.951301, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.354928, "energy": 49.177361, "activity_lines": [ 9.451267, 9.487073, 9.4977, 9.528761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.263, "volume": 84391, "typical_volume": 26784.2, "trend": 9.5546, "fair_value": 9.696956, "relative_strength": -15.538616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.132462, "energy": 71.849711, "activity_lines": [ 9.374467, 9.446345, 9.474567, 9.50926 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.129, "volume": 31845, "typical_volume": 26604.65, "trend": 9.539433, "fair_value": 9.690719, "relative_strength": -16.872967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.507933, "energy": 85.952734, "activity_lines": [ 9.2736, 9.383036, 9.4408, 9.481802 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.215, "volume": 18933, "typical_volume": 25617.45, "trend": 9.526567, "fair_value": 9.685571, "relative_strength": -18.077442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.919108, "energy": 81.785397, "activity_lines": [ 9.2354, 9.340145, 9.416914, 9.460871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }