{ "ticker": { "uuid": "774b4dfc-9163-48cd-8327-cedc2474e6f8", "symbol": "002903", "name": "Yuhuan CNC Machine Tool Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 55.164, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.069, "architecture_energy": 66.376, "architecture_maturity": 16.317, "architecture_confidence": 75.309, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.72, "rotation_up": 14.01, "upward_expansion": 29.92, "deceleration": 49.55, "rotation_down": 72.31, "downward_expansion": 57.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.701333, 31.771272, 36.324095, 35.213075 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.68, "trend_reference": 32.717, "distance_from_trend": -0.153957, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.859313, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.266279, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.422639, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.292854, "excess_performance": 0.285454, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153957, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.160644, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.266279, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.976488, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044226, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.632427, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.292854, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.976563, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72228176, "relative_activity": 1.575058, "balance": 0.976563, "dry_up": 1.425412, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.234215, "annualized_volatility": 0.967043, "from_high_reference": -0.495811, "from_low_reference": 0.382617 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.717, "fair_value_reference": 21.859313, "structural_low": 20.049999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.04194, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.016816, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.176301, "worst_return": -0.152857, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.014286, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.12658, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.343931, "worst_return": -0.135649, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.011803, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.080076, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.797323, "worst_return": -0.261905, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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41.274857, 37.126043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.360001, "volume": 44055376, "typical_volume": 52935417.65, "trend": 32.454667, "fair_value": 21.811245, "relative_strength": 8.981437, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.808968, "energy": 23.616818, "activity_lines": [ 41.964667, 43.885091, 40.964476, 37.203419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.75, "volume": 62452024, "typical_volume": 52304966.9, "trend": 32.523667, "fair_value": 21.807471, "relative_strength": -11.192874, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.748591, "energy": 23.781779, "activity_lines": [ 35.449333, 40.230182, 39.782333, 36.706344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.139999, "volume": 59855612, "typical_volume": 51047697.05, "trend": 32.591, "fair_value": 21.8065, "relative_strength": -17.117346, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.872606, "energy": 46.457125, "activity_lines": [ 29.771333, 36.675091, 38.449524, 36.100946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.709999, "volume": 66927345, "typical_volume": 46680233.0, "trend": 32.561, "fair_value": 21.814254, "relative_strength": -13.690203, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.605828, "energy": 53.444184, "activity_lines": [ 26.357333, 33.672, 37.180333, 35.527978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.68, "volume": 72228176, "typical_volume": 45857456.4, "trend": 32.717, "fair_value": 21.859313, "relative_strength": -4.422639, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.068597, "energy": 66.375543, "activity_lines": [ 25.701333, 31.771272, 36.324095, 35.213075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }