{ "ticker": { "uuid": "774bd141-15f1-44bd-936c-858c749ade88", "symbol": "XSXD", "name": "Xtrackers S&P 500 Swap UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.307, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.951, "architecture_energy": 67.354, "architecture_maturity": 89.22, "architecture_confidence": 62.186, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.71, "rotation_up": 53.37, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.42, "rotation_down": 29.16, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.449333, 14.395418, 14.18929, 13.866719 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.742, "trend_reference": 13.484764, "distance_from_trend": 0.093234, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.440926, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.288532, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.136862, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.156543, "excess_performance": -0.014349, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093234, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041315, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.288532, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032634, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031369, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008722, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.156543, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.107841, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 197147, "relative_activity": 2.101021, "balance": 1.107841, "dry_up": 1.936763, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017902, "annualized_volatility": 0.117517, "from_high_reference": -0.004457, "from_low_reference": 0.246614 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.484764, "fair_value_reference": 11.440926, "structural_low": 12.148313, 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65.306215, "activity_lines": [ 14.3816, 14.31397, 13.969334, 13.66339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.37, "volume": 58073, "typical_volume": 82110.15, "trend": 13.380425, "fair_value": 11.366593, "relative_strength": -2.308998, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.633011, "energy": 64.971832, "activity_lines": [ 14.3852, 14.334727, 14.044032, 13.730652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.176, "volume": 163197, "typical_volume": 86073.3, "trend": 13.428536, "fair_value": 11.401825, "relative_strength": -4.170246, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.020048, "energy": 59.648283, "activity_lines": [ 14.3224, 14.313782, 14.093163, 13.781979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.742, "volume": 197147, "typical_volume": 93833.9, "trend": 13.484764, "fair_value": 11.440926, "relative_strength": -3.136862, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.950687, "energy": 67.354006, "activity_lines": [ 14.449333, 14.395418, 14.18929, 13.866719 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }