{ "ticker": { "uuid": "774e2e33-71f2-4855-87f9-7e14319bc159", "symbol": "XMEX", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Mexico UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.853, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.62, "architecture_energy": 39.694, "architecture_maturity": 10.272, "architecture_confidence": 79.265, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.49, "rotation_up": 50.3, "upward_expansion": 77.1, "deceleration": 54.41, "rotation_down": 18.19, "downward_expansion": 6.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.029533, 7.996691, 7.966557, 7.916996 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.082, "trend_reference": 7.8588, "distance_from_trend": 0.028401, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.336667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.275434, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.191806, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.023686, "excess_performance": -0.147206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028401, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047863, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.275434, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038317, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051918, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10172, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.023686, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.496788, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94984, "relative_activity": 0.700831, "balance": 2.496788, "dry_up": 0.888009, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027868, "annualized_volatility": 0.194981, "from_high_reference": -0.022378, "from_low_reference": 0.35241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.8588, "fair_value_reference": 6.336667, "structural_low": 6.97, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.00465, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.002121, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.159109, "worst_return": -0.09539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.069554, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.003172, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.091791, "worst_return": -0.161844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.100377, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.038247, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.159321, "worst_return": -0.178378, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03965, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.080603, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023124, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056278, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079059, "active": false }, { "regime": 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6.310122, "relative_strength": -2.467141, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.415724, "energy": 16.528666, "activity_lines": [ 7.940667, 7.950509, 7.925562, 7.88268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.076, "volume": 136815, "typical_volume": 143534.8, "trend": 7.8304, "fair_value": 6.323346, "relative_strength": -2.411501, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.378565, "energy": 25.966276, "activity_lines": [ 7.987533, 7.974436, 7.947343, 7.900763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.082, "volume": 94984, "typical_volume": 135530.45, "trend": 7.8588, "fair_value": 6.336667, "relative_strength": -5.191806, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.619822, "energy": 39.69356, "activity_lines": [ 8.029533, 7.996691, 7.966557, 7.916996 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }