{ "ticker": { "uuid": "774f4113-e392-4798-a2c1-42ff8ce98342", "symbol": "RAA", "name": "RATIONAL Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 67.091, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 21.16, "architecture_energy": 16.44, "architecture_maturity": 33.007, "architecture_confidence": 59.372, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.94, "rotation_up": 42.71, "upward_expansion": 45.5, "deceleration": 36.26, "rotation_down": 29.21, "downward_expansion": 13.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 659.433333, 656.063636, 654.150692, 654.141675 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 666.5, "trend_reference": 658.21143, "distance_from_trend": 0.012593, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 698.02205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.045159, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.686627, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.091726, "excess_performance": -0.156366, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012593, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014582, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.045159, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003707, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046866, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043271, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091726, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.919547, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52186, "relative_activity": 1.14427, "balance": 0.919547, "dry_up": 0.968577, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041376, "annualized_volatility": 0.261378, "from_high_reference": -0.113951, "from_low_reference": 0.139102 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 658.21143, "fair_value_reference": 698.02205, "structural_low": 585.110266, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.011673, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.027074, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.144402, "worst_return": -0.258495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.031226, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.025308, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.187659, "worst_return": -0.25314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.010526, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.115857, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.055344, 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658.21087, "fair_value": 697.753042, "relative_strength": -1.082538, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.787193, "energy": 4.093499, "activity_lines": [ 654.9, 653.836364, 652.236173, 653.606892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 666.5, "volume": 52186, "typical_volume": 45606.35, "trend": 658.21143, "fair_value": 698.02205, "relative_strength": -4.686627, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.159667, "energy": 16.440331, "activity_lines": [ 659.433333, 656.063636, 654.150692, 654.141675 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }