{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7756910b-7877-435c-86f5-934c0b92a819", "symbol": "B2HI34", "name": "BILL Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 43.963, "architecture_energy": 66.644, "architecture_maturity": 19.044, "architecture_confidence": 77.354, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.2, "rotation_up": 79.13, "upward_expansion": 60.34, "deceleration": 12.33, "rotation_down": 14.15, "downward_expansion": 28.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.286667, 1.202909, 1.131857, 1.134301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.36, "trend_reference": 1.169333, "distance_from_trend": 0.163056, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.73641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.216775, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.844114, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.042254, "excess_performance": 0.014795, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.163056, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10874, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.216775, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.198225, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018441, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.307884, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042254, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.411849, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52590, "relative_activity": 1.356694, "balance": 3.411849, "dry_up": 1.222327, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088235, "annualized_volatility": 0.563692, "from_high_reference": -0.231638, "from_low_reference": 0.494505 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.169333, "fair_value_reference": 1.73641, "structural_low": 0.91, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.001915, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.003215, "worst_return": -0.006494, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.061532, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.025603, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090909, "worst_return": 0.032154, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.309872, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.456969, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.246753, "worst_return": -0.37299, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.524116, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.556145, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.524116, "worst_return": -0.524116, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023392, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.57672, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.442623, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.294444, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.101449, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025974, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099338, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108108, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.172619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118881, 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"typical_volume": 36934.85, "trend": 1.217, "fair_value": 1.784167, "relative_strength": -20.825697, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.528657, "energy": 13.25448, "activity_lines": [ 1.076, 1.047273, 1.056286, 1.111484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.27, "volume": 66668, "typical_volume": 37940.6, "trend": 1.203333, "fair_value": 1.771218, "relative_strength": -10.533676, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 14.428746, "energy": 25.895339, "activity_lines": [ 1.155333, 1.087636, 1.073619, 1.114903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.24, "volume": 36203, "typical_volume": 37113.55, "trend": 1.187667, "fair_value": 1.758077, "relative_strength": -12.069838, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.018631, "energy": 36.72333, "activity_lines": [ 1.202667, 1.119636, 1.087952, 1.117269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.27, "volume": 34065, "typical_volume": 37770.35, "trend": 1.178333, "fair_value": 1.746218, "relative_strength": -11.396584, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.03005, "energy": 55.518682, "activity_lines": [ 1.238667, 1.155636, 1.105857, 1.122581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.36, "volume": 52590, "typical_volume": 38763.35, "trend": 1.169333, "fair_value": 1.73641, "relative_strength": -1.844114, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.962873, "energy": 66.643535, "activity_lines": [ 1.286667, 1.202909, 1.131857, 1.134301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }