{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7756c4e5-5648-4e5d-8f64-7e0377d535db", "symbol": "MAGB", "name": "Market Access NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 93.249, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 11.545, "architecture_energy": 32.7, "architecture_maturity": 76.101, "architecture_confidence": 51.057, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.15, "rotation_up": 54.39, "upward_expansion": 31.98, "deceleration": 38.49, "rotation_down": 17.34, "downward_expansion": 54.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 306.569991, 288.496358, 290.460234, 299.739997 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 333.299988, "trend_reference": 313.319998, "distance_from_trend": 0.063769, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 180.761141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.84387, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.970599, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.074938, "excess_performance": -0.118028, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063769, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020023, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.84387, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013137, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039706, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032253, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074938, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.282098, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 136, "relative_activity": 1.427822, "balance": 1.282098, "dry_up": 1.005249, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054017, "annualized_volatility": 0.53358, "from_high_reference": -0.195899, "from_low_reference": 0.652864 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 313.319998, "fair_value_reference": 180.761141, "structural_low": 244.899994, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.002175, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.011486, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.20732, "worst_return": -0.096898, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.000575, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.013874, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.388362, "worst_return": -0.081166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.147227, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.142498, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.508235, 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17, "typical_volume": 134.5, "trend": 315.178333, "fair_value": 176.42582, "relative_strength": -18.698103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.629862, "energy": 84.727963, "activity_lines": [ 257.289997, 266.192726, 285.601666, 299.44258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 300.299988, "volume": 83, "typical_volume": 109.3, "trend": 314.714999, "fair_value": 177.757487, "relative_strength": -5.8683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.752794, "energy": 49.688072, "activity_lines": [ 270.466661, 270.618179, 285.774284, 298.482686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 315.149994, "volume": 147, "typical_volume": 101.6, "trend": 314.246665, "fair_value": 179.210179, "relative_strength": -0.642665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.078429, "energy": 19.911065, "activity_lines": [ 287.289993, 278.029996, 287.287854, 298.51075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 333.299988, "volume": 136, "typical_volume": 95.25, "trend": 313.319998, "fair_value": 180.761141, "relative_strength": 3.970599, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.545022, "energy": 32.700337, "activity_lines": [ 306.569991, 288.496358, 290.460234, 299.739997 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }