{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7758a1a6-d82c-4110-96fd-017da3ae97bd", "symbol": "HMGS", "name": "HomeBiogas Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 65.656, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.231, "architecture_energy": 34.345, "architecture_maturity": 15.82, "architecture_confidence": 53.902, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.63, "rotation_up": 58.57, "upward_expansion": 50.64, "deceleration": 41.99, "rotation_down": 21.22, "downward_expansion": 11.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.8788, 0.851909, 0.754195, 0.729856 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.76, "trend_reference": 0.7662, "distance_from_trend": -0.008092, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.803692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.578642, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.213466, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.300184, "excess_performance": -0.329084, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008092, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194011, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.578642, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136255, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.362135, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.265505, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.300184, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.661784, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 716263, "relative_activity": 0.320847, "balance": 2.661784, "dry_up": 0.855467, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.201619, "annualized_volatility": 1.024585, "from_high_reference": -0.556851, "from_low_reference": 0.759259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.7662, "fair_value_reference": 1.803692, "structural_low": 0.432, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.021659, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04161, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.424874, "worst_return": -0.18113, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.030189, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.077543, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.028037, "worst_return": -0.03234, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.386235, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.523198, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.189073, "worst_return": -0.583397, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.424874, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.188896, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.061562, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063764, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.322335, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.123404, 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"relative_strength": -18.290767, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.77824, "energy": 67.206768, "activity_lines": [ 0.900867, 0.782327, 0.697819, 0.716933 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.949, "volume": 1587529, "typical_volume": 2600769.45, "trend": 0.800867, "fair_value": 1.836205, "relative_strength": -24.610671, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.162406, "energy": 68.144949, "activity_lines": [ 0.9306, 0.827364, 0.725971, 0.725785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.889, "volume": 968075, "typical_volume": 2598642.65, "trend": 0.785033, "fair_value": 1.820429, "relative_strength": -26.447309, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.648233, "energy": 62.601474, "activity_lines": [ 0.933533, 0.854364, 0.7469, 0.731471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.76, "volume": 716263, "typical_volume": 2232416.1, "trend": 0.7662, "fair_value": 1.803692, "relative_strength": -36.213466, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.231472, "energy": 34.344982, "activity_lines": [ 0.8788, 0.851909, 0.754195, 0.729856 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }