{ "ticker": { "uuid": "775c468e-2b2b-4088-94a1-ca85cd09b6d2", "symbol": "VWSB", "name": "Vestas Wind Systems A/S", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.927, "architecture_energy": 12.183, "architecture_maturity": 23.914, "architecture_confidence": 62.766, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.46, "rotation_up": 25.83, "upward_expansion": 43.84, "deceleration": 71.33, "rotation_down": 32.6, "downward_expansion": 37.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.531333, 23.630727, 24.05648, 23.830005 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.809999, "trend_reference": 23.475439, "distance_from_trend": 0.014251, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.210807, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.239406, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.383081, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.107174, "excess_performance": -0.067072, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014251, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031575, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.239406, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120199, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083831, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.25957, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107174, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.302326, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60, "relative_activity": 0.068159, "balance": 1.302326, "dry_up": 0.184028, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066326, "annualized_volatility": 0.366914, "from_high_reference": -0.122697, "from_low_reference": 0.676849 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.475439, "fair_value_reference": 19.210807, "structural_low": 19.806137, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.014487, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.014814, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.261396, "worst_return": -0.078751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.12356, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.081589, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.423782, "worst_return": -0.046773, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.137904, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.198218, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.454207, "worst_return": -0.177225, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.469999, "volume": 40, "typical_volume": 7611.1, "trend": 23.400957, "fair_value": 19.17622, "relative_strength": -6.961409, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.112975, "energy": 7.114264, "activity_lines": [ 23.882, 23.939273, 24.233233, 23.809911 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.73, "volume": 19, "typical_volume": 5907.15, "trend": 23.439842, "fair_value": 19.179052, "relative_strength": -4.279325, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.581202, "energy": 9.776493, "activity_lines": [ 23.898667, 23.836, 24.227879, 23.83114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.25, "volume": 384, "typical_volume": 3851.5, "trend": 23.472759, "fair_value": 19.185009, "relative_strength": -7.55273, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.137409, "energy": 5.410237, "activity_lines": [ 23.657333, 23.687636, 24.164322, 23.818892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.309999, "volume": 185, "typical_volume": 1196.7, "trend": 23.474989, "fair_value": 19.191291, "relative_strength": -7.429582, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.44805, "energy": 12.791866, "activity_lines": [ 23.514666, 23.589636, 24.0929, 23.808392 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.809999, "volume": 60, "typical_volume": 880.3, "trend": 23.475439, "fair_value": 19.210807, "relative_strength": -8.383081, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.926577, "energy": 12.182576, "activity_lines": [ 23.531333, 23.630727, 24.05648, 23.830005 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }