{ "ticker": { "uuid": "775f47f6-0545-4bcf-ae55-3a8e1c3a7201", "symbol": "CRDF", "name": "Cardiff Oncology Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.401, "architecture_energy": 76.719, "architecture_maturity": 66.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.142, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.01, "rotation_up": 10.37, "upward_expansion": 17.39, "deceleration": 39.07, "rotation_down": 73.93, "downward_expansion": 90.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.93012, 1.053324, 1.284975, 1.412982 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.9919, "trend_reference": 1.613473, "distance_from_trend": -0.385239, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.529065, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.6078, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.229646, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.380063, "excess_performance": -0.567516, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.385239, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211144, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.6078, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.25013, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.552296, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104281, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.380063, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.069988, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3646556, "relative_activity": 0.610465, "balance": 1.069988, "dry_up": 1.422209, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.261681, "annualized_volatility": 0.89006, "from_high_reference": -0.700332, "from_low_reference": 0.310997 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.613473, "fair_value_reference": 2.529065, "structural_low": 0.7566, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.059574, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.004054, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.746154, "worst_return": -0.461847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.163564, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.188277, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.268657, "worst_return": -0.571885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.032061, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.118238, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.799107, "worst_return": -0.330033, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.24924, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014035, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023102, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.292063, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.383178, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020921, "active": 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"activity_lines": [ 1.149333, 1.301273, 1.464762, 1.579011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.8269, "volume": 5929978, "typical_volume": 5837740.1, "trend": 1.74323, "fair_value": 2.540878, "relative_strength": -62.070733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.375941, "energy": 82.697209, "activity_lines": [ 1.028967, 1.191073, 1.393752, 1.514854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.8554, "volume": 5152587, "typical_volume": 5930716.2, "trend": 1.683077, "fair_value": 2.535399, "relative_strength": -60.125796, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.135174, "energy": 81.686849, "activity_lines": [ 0.94364, 1.101384, 1.330472, 1.457574 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9919, "volume": 3646556, "typical_volume": 5973403.9, "trend": 1.613473, "fair_value": 2.529065, "relative_strength": -55.229646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.400504, "energy": 76.718714, "activity_lines": [ 0.93012, 1.053324, 1.284975, 1.412982 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }