{ "ticker": { "uuid": "776361c5-b224-4b48-bb8f-04a9eab0c5bd", "symbol": "HWDN", "name": "Howden Joinery Group Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 63.917, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.481, "architecture_energy": 8.161, "architecture_maturity": 19.574, "architecture_confidence": 44.33, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.84, "rotation_up": 21.66, "upward_expansion": 15.93, "deceleration": 54.33, "rotation_down": 34.06, "downward_expansion": 58.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 802.233333, 805.818182, 799.260343, 805.67061 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 840.0, "trend_reference": 818.106191, "distance_from_trend": 0.026762, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 821.028466, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.023107, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.554911, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.003787, "excess_performance": -0.062492, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026762, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007976, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.023107, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053658, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065549, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057739, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003787, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.645377, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6077246, "relative_activity": 0.754322, "balance": 1.645377, "dry_up": 1.109377, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0558, "annualized_volatility": 0.396369, "from_high_reference": -0.143558, "from_low_reference": 0.178121 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 818.106191, "fair_value_reference": 821.028466, "structural_low": 713.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.002707, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.029923, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.219729, "worst_return": -0.10719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.031559, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.059469, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.180965, "worst_return": -0.149645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.066172, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.134574, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.229902, "worst_return": -0.328317, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021573, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033156, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031915, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038554, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031829, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-02-20", 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"relative_strength": -6.554911, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.48148, "energy": 8.161178, "activity_lines": [ 802.233333, 805.818182, 799.260343, 805.67061 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }