{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7767d32e-2d8b-4483-a784-df7701273611", "symbol": "MLONL", "name": "SA Onlineformapro", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 76.214, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -40.075, "architecture_energy": 78.667, "architecture_maturity": 14.883, "architecture_confidence": 58.676, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.14, "rotation_up": 16.0, "upward_expansion": 28.0, "deceleration": 43.0, "rotation_down": 73.99, "downward_expansion": 67.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.0, 1.038727, 1.075857, 1.086387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.0, "trend_reference": 1.065, "distance_from_trend": -0.061033, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.725665, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.420513, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.223976, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.117318, "excess_performance": 0.064007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061033, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104008, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.420513, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036019, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02224, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148774, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.117318, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.479481, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.479481, "dry_up": 0.008042, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028462, "annualized_volatility": 0.625742, "from_high_reference": -0.280576, "from_low_reference": 0.666667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.065, "fair_value_reference": 1.725665, "structural_low": 0.8, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.231292, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": 0.215356, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.320611, "worst_return": -0.433908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.257793, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.253654, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.096774, "worst_return": -0.505747, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.254198, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.259349, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.48855, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.094341, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.10125, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.858732, "worst_return": -0.664583, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.172414, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088235, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.440625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106145, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.387097, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.150838, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017241, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025424, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.758504, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1684.85, "trend": 2.364069, "fair_value": 2.124447, "relative_strength": 28.15174, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.548235, "energy": 54.10511, "activity_lines": [ 2.6507, 2.530906, 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"fair_value": 1.772271, "relative_strength": 16.607579, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.733498, "energy": 32.317288, "activity_lines": [ 1.142, 1.135455, 1.135929, 1.095935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.0, "volume": 3689, "typical_volume": 1283.6, "trend": 1.016333, "fair_value": 1.765267, "relative_strength": 3.732099, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.79216, "energy": 13.707699, "activity_lines": [ 1.094, 1.112727, 1.123381, 1.095312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.0, "volume": 21, "typical_volume": 1044.6, "trend": 1.029, "fair_value": 1.756434, "relative_strength": 3.124225, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": -19.815587, "energy": 43.502304, "activity_lines": [ 1.056, 1.092727, 1.110714, 1.094258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1042.1, "trend": 1.040667, "fair_value": 1.746381, "relative_strength": 2.117522, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.840798, "energy": 64.400536, "activity_lines": [ 1.028, 1.072727, 1.09819, 1.092387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 897.55, "trend": 1.052333, "fair_value": 1.736937, "relative_strength": 0.301393, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.089982, "energy": 78.227647, "activity_lines": [ 1.009333, 1.054727, 1.086429, 1.089763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 652.8, "trend": 1.065, "fair_value": 1.725665, "relative_strength": -2.223976, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.07526, "energy": 78.666707, "activity_lines": [ 1.0, 1.038727, 1.075857, 1.086387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }